The Coming Week: New Year, Old Issues

The market is likely to enter the new year without a lot of momentum, experts say, given a weak economic outlook and heightening political tensions in North Korea and Iraq.

In the coming week, scheduled economic data will include existing-home sales, the consumer confidence index and monthly auto sales, as well as Midwest and national manufacturing indices.

Stocks finished lower last week, amid some of the weakest trading volumes of the year and flare-ups overseas. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 207 points, or 2.4%, to 8303.8, while the Nasdaq dropped 15 points, or 1.1%, to 1348. The S&P 500 lost 20 points, or 2.3%, to 875.4.

On Friday, North Korea said it would expel United Nations inspectors from a nuclear plant capable of producing plutonium, raising more anxiety in an already skittish market. Two weeks earlier, North Korea said it was restarting a reactor to produce electricity after the U.S. cut off oil shipments to the country.

"The situations in North Korea and Iraq are likely to hang over the market in the next month," said Jay Meagrow, vice president of trading at McDonald. "It has already put a damper on things."

For the year, the Dow is down 18%, the Nasdaq is off 32%, and the S&P 500 is behind 24%.

Historically, January has been one of the stronger months of the year. "Psychologically, people are turning over a new leaf," said Jeff Hirsch, head of the Hirsch Organization, which publishes the Stock Trader's Almanac. However, few market experts are expecting much of a boost this year.

For one thing, evidence of an economic recovery continues to be scant. The most recent durable goods orders report, an important gauge of business investment spending, was far worse than expected. Meanwhile, retail sales growth in November and December was by some measures the lowest it has been since 1970.