Mutual Fund Monday - Beverly Goodman

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12/16/02 - 07:05 AM EST

Beverly Goodman

Indeed, it's the market that determines the economy, Miller says. "We should look to the market to know what the economy's going to do," he says. "If the market goes up, the economy will be fine."

As for corporate sentiment regarding today's environment, Miller also sees positive signs. "We're starting to see some mergers and acquisitions," he says. "Companies don't buy others in a deteriorating situation; they buy when they believe we've hit the bottom of the cycle. We're going to see more and more of that."

Bond Bandwagon Overflowing

For those investors still looking for a reason to get back into equities, there's incentive in some other surprising places. Bill Gross, who manages Pimco's $274 billion bond portfolio, stated last week in his latest "Investment Outlook" for Pimco investors (as well as on CNBC, CNNfn and in the December issue of Kiplinger's) that treasuries are trading at too high a premium and individual investors have shifted their portfolios way too far into bonds.

"There's little doubt from this Bond Man," Gross says, "that the bond market's salad days are over -- 4% to 5% annual total returns at best over the next several years should be expected."

That's not to say that the flight out of bonds should rival the flight into bonds the market saw last year. But there's less incentive to hide out in the bond market if you believe that the stock market is ready to rally.

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Mutual Fund Monday - Beverly Goodman



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