Expect the Inexplicable

Suspending rigor may be the only way to make money at this moment. People hate to suspend rigor, but consider this: Last week Tom Siebel of Siebel SystemsSEBL made some downbeat comments about the future and the stock got tagged. Lots of people went short the stock. It made a ton of sense.

Now, today, Tom Siebel -- the exact same Tom Siebel, not a facsimile -- told people he is "reasonably optimistic" about the fourth quarter.

I don't think you could come up with a statement more diametrically opposed to where Tom Siebel's head was a week ago than the "reasonably optimistic" one he just put out.

Statements like this are simply inexplicable, but, as I have written over and over, you have to expect the inexplicable at this stage of the rally. Some of you will email me and ask "How can you be so inconsistent about your views?" No one will email Tom Siebel, though. He won't catch any flack, as you never catch any flack for being optimistic. If you are consistent and dogmatic, you will be shorting Siebel right here. But I would say that's too dangerous. I wouldn't buy it either. However, if I owned some, I would sell a little to take advantage of the irrationality.

I know this may not be what you want to hear. You want a coherent view of things. So do I. But how can things be coherent if a major executive of a major information technology company changes his mind virtually overnight?