Bottom of the Barrel: Midyear Report Card Searches for Value
After a tumultuous quarter for many stocks in the Barrel, most of their earnings results are in. So, this week, let's review the quarter's highlights and lowlights and try to answer many of your recent questions about how to play the current names in the Bottom of the Barrel portfolio.
A market niche.Real and sensible growth. A pristine balance sheet. An honest management team.
A Superior PlayAmong the Barrel's upper echelon, Superior Industries (SUP) continues to run on all cylinders. The company posted a 54% increase in second-quarter earnings over the year-ago period, and its 78 cents in per-share earnings beat the consensus estimate by more than 8%. Superior continues to roll along, last week announcing a new contract to provide wheels for the Dodge Dakota and Durango. In addition, the company's balance sheet remains pristine and sports a 1.1% yield to boot. Superior remains one of the top prospects in the portfolio. Here's a quick look at other potential winners:
(ROAD) continues to feel the challenges of an uncertain economy. Although this over-the-road carrier has strong leverage to an economic recovery, CEO Michael Wickham said July traffic was softer than expected. The company is positioned to weather the softness, but its stock will keep trading on economic news.
(LION) posted a solid second quarter, increasing net interest income, reducing problem loans and keeping tight control on costs. When this is combined with the release from a consent order from regulators, you'd think the stock would rally. Small-cap financials, however, have been caught in the recent market downdraft, and this one's no different. Loan growth in the third quarter should be good, and company financials continue to strengthen. I also think Fidelity remains a prime acquisition target for a larger bank looking to enter the core Atlanta market.
(CBSA) are niche-market banks that posted solid second-quarter financials. Both have seen nice gains in the past week and should enjoy above-average appreciation in the coming months.
Cost Plus World Markets
(CPWM) has felt the pain of most retailers in recent weeks, although comparable-store sales have been positive. There's still plenty of growth left in this story in both total stores and same-store sales. Plus, a new East Coast merchandise hub will begin to show benefits of increased efficiency as it is fully operational and can serve additional stores in the East. Performance of California stores -- the company's largest market -- is also improving.
|Assessing the Possibilities
Churning the barrel for value
|Current Rating||Company/Ticker||Date of Mention||Current Price||Mention Price*||% Change From Mention||% Change Last Week|
|Above Average Outlook|
|Superior (SUP:NYSE)||July 10, 2002||$45.40||$43.87||3.49%||13.22%|
|Roadway (ROAD:Nadsaq)||June 19, 2002||29.32||34.03||-13.84||15.89|
|Fidelity National (LION:Nasdaq)||May 8, 2002||9.50||10.58||-10.21||-1.35|
|UCBH Holdings (UCBH:Nasdaq)||March 27, 2002||42.08||35.65||18.04||9.58|
|Cost Plus World Markets (CPWM:Nasdaq)||March 6, 2002||22.52||25.83||-12.81||13.22|
|Coastal Bancorp (CBSA:Nasdaq)||Dec. 12, 2001||29.02||27.84||4.24||3.64|
|Champps Entertainment (CMPP:Nasdaq)||May 29, 2002||$9.85||$13.01||-24.29%||0.72%|
|Trico Marine (TMAR:Nasdaq)||May 1, 2002||3.86||8.25||-53.21||0.78|
|Rare Hospitality (RARE:Nasdaq)||Feb. 20, 2002||25.64||25.72||-0.31||6.92|
|NetBank (NTBK:Nasdaq)||Feb. 6, 2002||8.96||13.45||-33.38||2.28|
|SurModics (SRDX:Nasdaq)||Dec. 19, 2001||28.93||34.60||-16.39||8.03|
|VitalWorks (VWKS:Nasdaq)||Nov. 21, 2001||7.44||4.30||73.02||10.88|
|FPIC Insurance (FPIC:Nasdaq)||Nov. 14, 2001||8.86||12.83||-30.94||-12.45|
|Coinstar (CSTR:Nasdaq)||Nov. 7, 2001||29.99||19.96||50.25||1.87|
|Witness Systems (WITS:Nasdaq)||Oct. 31, 2001||4.55||8.06||-43.55||5.81|
|Hibbett Sports (HIBB:Nasdaq)**||Oct. 24, 2001||18.00||20.04||-10.18||-3.38|
|Quixote (QUIX:Nasdaq)||Oct. 3, 2001||16.00||21.44||-25.37||7.31|
|Below Average Outlook|
|Innotrac (INOC:Nasdaq)||June 12, 2002||$2.30||$4.79||-51.98%||-11.54%|
|Wilsons Leather (WLSN:Nasdaq)||May 22, 2002||8.79||14.96||-41.24||2.33|
|Arch Chemicals (ARJ:NYSE)||April 24, 2002||20.65||22.52||-8.30||5.14|
|Hines Horticulture (HORT:Nasdaq)||April 17, 2001||3.15||4.75||-33.68||0.00|
|Actrade (ACRT:Nasdaq)||Jan. 30, 2002||1.74||20.65||-91.57||-21.97|
|Endocare (ENDO:Nasdaq)||Jan. 23, 2002||14.05||18.21||-22.84||18.07|
|Quanta (PWR:NYSE)||Jan. 9, 2002||1.90||16.05||-88.16||-4.52|
|Goody's Family Clothing (GDYS:Nasdaq)||Nov. 28, 2001||4.69||4.50||4.22||11.40|
|Bridgford Foods (BRID:Nasdaq)||Oct. 10, 2001||11.54||13.18||-12.44||-3.43|
|Bottom of the Barrel Income Portfolio|
|Hawaiian Electric (HE:NYSE)||July 31, 2002||$44.13||$41.86||5.42%||6.34%|
|JDN Realty (JDN:NYSE)||July 17, 2002||$11.80||$11.57||1.99||2.25|
|UGI (UGI:NYSE)||June 26, 2002||33.61||31.30||7.38||7.04|
|Acadia Realty (AKR:NYSE)||June 5, 2002||7.90||7.03||12.38||8.82|
|Capital Automotive REIT (CARS:Nasdaq)||April 3, 2002||24.36||22.95||6.14||0.04|
|Laclede Group (LG:NYSE)||March 20, 2002||23.26||23.64||-1.61||9.20|
|Alexandria Real Estate (ARE:NYSE)||Feb 13, 2002||42.76||40.25||6.24||3.41|
|Empire District Electric (EDE:NYSE)||Jan. 16, 2002||18.74||21.23||-11.73||6.66|
|Integra Bancorp (IBNK:Nasdaq)||Jan. 2, 2002||21.25||20.75||2.41||2.02|
|Met-Pro (MPR:NYSE)||Oct. 17, 2001||14.10||11.16||26.34||5.62|
|Bottom of the Barrel Special Situation Portfolio|
|Key Production (KP:NYSE)||Aug. 7, 2002||$18.29||$17.30||5.72%||12.90%|
|Luby's (LUB:NYSE)||Feb. 27, 2002||$5.43||$6.22||-12.70||2.07|
|*Average price on date of mention. **Prices adjusted for 3:2 split on Feb. 20, 2002. Source: Thomson Financial/First Call, TSC Research|
Looking for Stability...Two stocks among the average performers stand out: Rare Hospitality (RARE) and NetBank (NTBK). Rare reported earnings of 40 cents a share for the second quarter, a nickel above consensus. Moreover, comps were strong, with nearly 5% same-store increases at its flagship Longhorn chain, well above expectations of just 1%. The company has one of the most solid management teams in the industry and a very conservative growth strategy. Again, an economic-sensitive play, it remains appealing as the economy turns the corner. NetBank had what SunTrust Robinson Humphrey analyst Christopher Marinac called "a noisy quarter." Its acquisition of Resource Mortgage created sloppy second-quarter numbers, yet the mortgage business should add incrementally to this year's earnings. At conservative per-share earnings estimates of 55 cents this year and $1 next, the current stock price is discounting additional bad news. Although I haven't been right in assessing NetBank's potential this year, it presents compelling value for patient investors.
... Avoiding InstabilitySmall-caps with bad stories, bad karma and bad numbers can be the death of investors in a skeptical market. Take, for example, Actrade (ACRT) and Quanta (PWR). I get a lot of email asking if investors shouldn't take a chance on these stocks. My answer is simple: If you have money to lose, go to Vegas. Yes, there's a chance for big gains here, but there are better-than-even chances for greater losses.
Looking for IncomeOne potential sign of a solid balance sheet and positive management outlook is consistent dividends. This portfolio has focused on a number of those names in recent months, and all have performed well. Here are a couple of highlights:
(HE) has been a solid performer after only two weeks in the portfolio. If you're in the stock for the dividend, consider staying. However, I'd wait until the stock pulls back to around $40 before I'd establish a new position. This stock looks fully valued at current prices.
(EDE), has been hurt by a secondary offering, concerns over earnings and regulatory issues. However, the current depressed price offers both an attractive entry point and an attractive 6.8% yield.
(JDN) continues to pay a 9.2% dividend, which appears safe. While there's not significant appreciation beyond current prices, income-oriented equity investors might be attracted to the coupon.
Two other real estate investment trusts remain attractive.
(AKR), with a 6.7% yield, and
(CARS), with a 6.6% yield, present compelling yield plays.
Alexandria Real Estate
(ARE) remains a good growth play in biotech real estate, although it's approaching fair value and only yields 4.7%.
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