This Market's Bright Spots Are Hard to Find

Given the recent Easter and Passover holidays, it's appropriate to search for some salvation, but it's hard to find after another difficult day for equities.

About the best news one can discern for the market today was that the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished well above its morning low of 10,264.86, closing down 0.5% for the day at 10,313.71. Additionally, the Dow managed to close above 10,300, which is considered technical support after being the index's intraday peak on Jan. 7. A breach of that level would increase the risk that the Dow will retest its late January lows of 9529.46.

Other hopeful signs came from the bond market, where the price of the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 17/32 to 96 12/32, its yield falling to 5.35%. Additionally, the fed funds futures are pricing in a less than 50% chance of a Fed tightening at its May 7 meeting after a weaker-than-expected factory orders report calmed the bond market's fears that an overly robust recovery would lead to inflation.

Unfortunately, there wasn't a whole lot more good news for those who are long equities.

Most troubling, the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 3.1% to 1804.96, finishing fractionally above its intraday low. The S&P 500 finished down 0.9% to 1136.77 after trading as low as 1135.71.

Selling of tech stocks that dominate the Comp accelerated as the day progressed, in conjunction with a pickup in activity. Nearly 1.7 billion shares traded in over-the-counter activity today vs. 1.55 billion yesterday and up significantly from recent levels. Declining stocks led advancers 21 to 13, although new 52-week highs bested new lows by 127 to 50.

The fundamental cause for the Comp's decline today was a profit warning by PeopleSoft (PSFT), which tumbled 33.2%. In addition, Microsoft (MSFT) lost 5% after an earnings estimate cut by Goldman Sachs, which also trimmed estimates on tech giants Sun Microsystems(SUNW), IBM(IBM) and EMC(EMC).

Technically, the Comp breached its recent intraday low of 1807 set on March 26. Given the tenor and tone of today's trading, this suggests that a retest of its Feb. 22 low of 1696.55 may be in the offing. At a minimum, a retreat to the trendline at 1765 from Feb. 22 seems likely, if I'm correctly assessing the analysis offered here last week by Michael Paulenoff of 2Mstrategies.com. (Paulenoff could not be reached for additional comment.)

As mentioned at midday, the folks at the Hirsch Organization, publishers of The Stock Trader's Almanac, issued a sell call today, reversing a buy call that had been intact since Oct. 2.

What perhaps bodes most ill for equities was that most of the excitement today was in commodities, notably oil and gold (oil and gold, oil and gold, it's rally time for commodities...).

Amid rising concern about the escalation of violence in the Middle East, crude oil futures rose 3% to $27.71 a barrel today after trading as high as $28.10 intraday, its highest level since Sept. 18. Natural gas futures rose 3.4% to $3.65 per-million British thermal units. Oil and related stocks were among the few bright spots of trading today; the Amex Oil Index rose 0.8%, while the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Oil Service Index climbed 0.5%.

Meanwhile, the price of gold rose 0.9% to $307 an ounce, although gold-related stocks, which have been outpacing the metal for some time, suffered a midday reversal. After trading as high as 73.48 intraday, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold & Silver Index shed 1.2% to 71.50 today.

Perhaps the setback for gold shares and the post-close release of larger-than-expected crude supplies by the American Petroleum Institute mean the recent gains for oil and gold are due for a pause, although geopolitical developments remain very much a wild card.

Gold remains "quite strong," but a "contrary stance" on gold-related shares makes sense near term, commented Nick Moore, portfolio manager at Jurika & Voyles, an Oakland, Calif.-based money management firm with $2 billion in assets, via email today.

Jurika & Voyles recently pared back its long positions in gold shares, although Moore acknowledged, "I will have to chase them up if the metal bolts much above $310, the [dollar] breaks down, or if the spread between the TIPS and regular coupon Treasuries starts to widen again."

Regardless of near-term fluctuations, "the strength in real assets including metals, energy, housing, etc., is still really THE story in the capital markets," Moore wrote. (Caps his.)

Implicit in the hedge fund manager's comment is that institutional investors have grown increasingly wary of equities and are searching for opportunity elsewhere.

Moore's comments dovetail nicely with the multiple comments and columns recently at TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com about individuals' "lack of interest" in stocks and the continued disillusionment of the "wounded" investor.

Having just returned from an extended holiday weekend, I can tell you that family and friends are far less interested in talking about stocks than in recent years. Notably, I wasn't traveling with an adorable baby girl in those days. (Italics mine, and I'm being completely objective here.)

Then again, those friends and family younger than 60 continue to invest in stocks in their 401(k)s via mutual funds at the same level as in years past, even if they're no longer as anxious to check the statements.

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