A Complete Update on the Turnaround Artist's Picks

Editor's Note: Arne Alsin's column runs exclusively on RealMoney.com; this is a special free look at his column. For a free trial subscription to RealMoney.com, click here. This article was published March 14 on RealMoney.

I've had a lot of requests for my latest thoughts on my RealMoney stock picks, especially because many of the stocks have been on the move recently. So here are all 19 of my current picks, from the oldest to the most recent, including my Top 10 Turnarounds for 2002 list as well as all the picks from my other columns.

For those who want to review the performance of these companies since their recommendation, see the chart at the end of this column.

J.C. Penney(JCP Quote)

. I'm not putting new money into Penney's. I'm awaiting additional data in the upcoming 10-K filing. I'm concerned about progress at Eckerd, a key asset on which my valuation analysis is based. Also, there were several surprises in the last conference call (e.g., a pension income change, cash-flow projection changes and capital cost changes for new distribution centers). I need more time to fairly gauge the implications of these.

Hasbro(HAS Quote)

. A renewed focus on an impressive cadre of core brands (Milton Bradley, Parker Bros., Mr. Potato Head, among others) coupled with strong free-cash-flow generation in a stable industry set this stock up well for long-term outperformance. I'm putting new money to work in Hasbro at the current quote.

Office Depot(ODP Quote)

. I still maintain a core position in Office Depot, even after the stock's stellar performance in 2001. On pullbacks, I am a buyer because there is plenty of sales leverage in the model and the sales comps will be easy for the remainder of the year. I also like the growth engine in the international business (20% annually, in constant dollars), which is a segment with higher margins than the domestic business.

Centennial Bancorp(CEBC Quote)

. Not a stock to chase because it is a small-cap and thinly traded. But if you can get a decent price -- anything at $8 a share or below -- I think it represents excellent value.

Liz Claiborne(LIZ Quote)

. One of my favorite stocks for the long haul. With diversified brands and a growing international business, I expect this solid company to continue to generate lots of free-cash flow. Along with Office Depot, this is one of the best-managed companies that I own.

York International(YRK Quote)

. I don't think the demand for refrigeration is going away. If you're a believer in an economic pickup, this is a cyclical that has upside.

Textron(TXT Quote)

. I'm not selling this position, but there are enough moving parts to warrant waiting to comment further until after I review the 10-K filing.

Continental Airlines(CAL Quote)

. Great management but a poor business model make this company appropriate for traders only.

Manpower(MAN Quote)

. Manpower has been moving in anticipation of an economic pickup. If we are headed for better times, we're in the fourth or fifth inning with this one. My current plan is to hold MAN for another year or two, at least.

Legg Mason(LM Quote) and Raymond James(RJF Quote)

. Good stock-pickers see things that others don't see. For the brokerage group, take a look at the unique way I valued the companies in my October column (see the valuation table), and you can see why I was bullish on the group back then. I'm putting new money to work in Raymond James, while Legg has moved too far, too fast, to chase.

Snap-On(SNA Quote)

. This company is close to my valuation target. I would buy only on a pullback.

Bowne(BNE Quote)

. I'm still a buyer of this small-cap financial printing company, but I won't chase it.

Prime Hospitality(PDQ Quote)

. I had to buy something in the travel industry in the face of the panic last year. Because I can't predict when normal travel patterns will completely resume, I selected a company with very strong financials. I'm still a buyer at the current quote.

Toys R Us(TOY Quote)

. I've reviewed the debt situation of TOY in detail, knowing that a downgrade of debt by Moody's was imminent (it occurred Wednesday). Toys R Us needs to finish the remodeling of its store base this year, and that takes capital. Because of its ample real estate holdings, TOY has financing alternatives to the commercial paper market. I'm still buying at the current quote.

Spherion(SFN Quote)

. The stock of this small-cap staffing company has rallied in anticipation of a better economy. As I've said in prior columns, you have to anticipate change ("get in front") to make money in the market. I'll discuss this one more after reviewing the 10-K.

Phillips-Van Heusen(PVH Quote)

. I think this stock can get to at least the high teens in the next year or so. Fashion risk is low, given that its base of business is spread among dress shirts (Geoffrey Beene), sportswear (Izod) and shoes (Bass). It has moved a lot since my recommendation, so don't chase the stock; you should be able to obtain a better entry price at some point during the year.

Cummins(CUM Quote)

.This is one of my smaller positions, a pure cyclical play on the trucking industry. It's been noticed, and the price is up accordingly. Unless you're going to broadly diversify, there are better choices elsewhere on the list.

Millennium Pharmaceuticals(MLNM Quote)

. I'm still buying for the long haul at current prices.

An Updated Scorecard A complete update of my 19 current picks
Name of Security	Stock Symbol	Date of Column	Historic Cost	Current Price	Simple Return	Days Held	S&P 500 Return Over Time Held
J.C. Penney	JCP	12/28/00	$10.25	$22.00	114.63%	440	-12.73%
Hasbro	HAS	12/28/00	$10.06	$15.38	52.88%	440	-12.73%
Office Depot	ODP	12/28/00	$6.94	$19.11	175.36%	440	-12.73%
Centennial Bank	CEBC	3/30/01	$7.75	$8.00	3.23%	348	0.34%
Liz Claiborne	LIZ	4/24/01	$22.25	$28.75	29.21%	323	-3.73%
York Int'l	YRK	5/10/01	$30.44	$35.70	17.28%	307	-7.24%
Textron	TXT	6/5/01	$58.97	$48.83	-17.20%	281	-9.29%
Continental Airlines	CAL	7/12/01	$50.00	$32.25	-35.50%	244	-3.63%
Manpower	MAN	8/7/01	$31.77	$39.07	22.98%	218	-3.33%
Legg Mason	LM	10/3/01	$40.22	$55.80	38.74%	161	9.49%
Raymond James	RJF	10/3/01	$28.35	$35.08	23.74%	161	9.49%
Snap-On	SNA	11/1/01	$27.20	$34.85	28.13%	132	7.40%
Bowne	BNE	11/15/01	$12.93	$13.90	7.50%	118	2.06%
Prime Hospitality	PDQ	11/15/01	$10.12	$12.57	24.21%	118	2.06%
Toys R Us	TOY	12/6/01	$22.06	$20.31	-7.93%	97	0.28%
Spherion	SFN	12/6/01	$10.10	$11.81	16.93%	97	0.28%
Phillips-Van Heusen	PVH	12/12/01	$11.30	$14.50	28.32%	91	2.69%
Cummins	CUM	12/12/01	$38.38	$45.68	19.02%	91	2.69%
Millennium Pharm.	MLNM	1/23/02	$20.25	$24.77	22.32%	49	3.20%
				Average Return: Open Positions			30.08%
				Average Return: S&P 500			-1.59%
				Average Duration (# Days):			228
Source: Alsin Capital Management