How the WTC Tragedy Will Affect the Action Alert Portfolio

09/16/01 - 02:55 PM EDT

Jim Cramer

I wish I didn't have to write about pedestrian things like money. But we own stocks, and stocks are going to trade tomorrow, so I can't pretend that I don't have a portfolio and I can't pretend that it doesn't matter. I will review each position in my Action Alert portfolio in light of the previous week's terrible events, and suggest what could happen when trading resumes.

The Market
History Shows Panic Selling or Buying Is Not a Good Strategy
Gary B. Smith: Looking to the Past for Guidance
The Argument Against Gloom
Facing a Market Transformed by Terror
Cramer: Euro Markets Don't Tell the Whole Story
The Economy
Tony Dwyer: Triumph Over Tragedy Is the American Way
Tragedy -- and Retaliation -- to Strongly Affect Energy Sector
Sector Watch
Investors Will Be Seeking Safety, but Not All Will Desert Biotech
Software Firms Likely Will Forget the Third Quarter, Look to Fourth
Consumer Uncertainty Weighs on Wireless Sector After a Week of Warnings
Defense Stocks Aren't the Sure Bets You Might Expect

Alcoa(AA Quote - Cramer on AA - Stock Picks): Cash flow uninterrupted by event. No material impact other than additional GDP slowdown. Alcoa does have sizable business related to aircraft production that could theoretically be hurt by damaged airline financials.

Amerisource Bergen(ABC Quote - Cramer on ABC - Stock Picks): No impact on drug wholesaling. This one could benefit from the flight to safety.

AOL Time Warner(AOL Quote - Cramer on AOL - Stock Picks): Probably lost millions in ad revenue this week. That it maintained reliability throughout crisis might be theoretically beneficial, but numbers must come down.

Best Buy(BBY Quote - Cramer on BBY - Stock Picks): Retail feels tremendous negative drag after events like this. Not a good short-term stock.

Caterpillar(CAT Quote - Cramer on CAT - Stock Picks): GDP-slowdown fears will weigh on this stock. Rebuilding issue will not be a short-term spur.

Cisco(CSCO Quote - Cramer on CSCO - Stock Picks): It announced a buyback, but since this stock is huge, we don't know how much impact that buyback will have. Possible rebuild spur, and re-analysis of back-up systems, a la Y2K, could help orders, but don't think it will be long-lasting. Still, a better stock than it was last week.

Citigroup(C Quote - Cramer on C - Stock Picks): No damage from attack. But this is a consumer-confidence play to some degree so it is somewhat worrisome. Needs rate cut.

Constellation Energy(CEG Quote - Cramer on CEG - Stock Picks): Unaffected by last week's events. Good value play.

EMC(EMC Quote - Cramer on EMC - Stock Picks): Storage play that could be benefit from the realization that back-up systems aren't good enough. Will benefit short-term.

Fluor(FLR Quote - Cramer on FLR - Stock Picks): Long-term construction projects are unaffected by last week's events.

Ford(F Quote - Cramer on F - Stock Picks): Consumer-confidence sag hurts comeback chances. Expect imminent dividend cut.

General Electric(GE Quote - Cramer on GE - Stock Picks): Big blue-chips might be seen as safer harbor than before. This company needs to step up its buyback. Numbers now more suspect, though.

Guidant(GDT Quote - Cramer on GDT - Stock Picks): Will benefit from a flight to safety.

Halliburton(HAL Quote - Cramer on HAL - Stock Picks): Energy stocks might catch a bid because of potential turmoil in the Mideast. Could conceivably benefit, short-term.

IBM(IBM Quote - Cramer on IBM - Stock Picks): I want to buy this stock on any weakness, because I think companies will turn to IBM for help in remote disaster-proofing. This is my primary buy-on-weakness pick. Big cash flow, big buyback.

International Paper(IP Quote - Cramer on IP - Stock Picks): No impact.

Kohl's(KSS Quote - Cramer on KSS - Stock Picks): Retail is not a place to be right now. This stock has come down a great deal. In low 40s, I will probably begin to buy again.

Merck(MRK Quote - Cramer on MRK - Stock Picks): May benefit from a flight to safety and buybacks. Will also benefit from a weakened dollar.

Merrill Lynch(MER Quote - Cramer on MER - Stock Picks): Another round of number cuts ahead because of missed business. Merrill will step up disaster planning and IT spending.

Microsoft(MSFT Quote - Cramer on MSFT - Stock Picks): Could announce a stepped-up buyback plan, but otherwise there is no real impact.

Morgan Stanley(MWD Quote - Cramer on MWD - Stock Picks): Loss of revenue triggers another round of earnings-estimate cuts.

Pepsico(PEP Quote - Cramer on PEP - Stock Picks): Will benefit from a flight to safety. Will receive a higher price-to-earnings ratio.

Pfizer(PFE Quote - Cramer on PFE - Stock Picks): Had just reiterated forecast. Will benefit from a flight to safety and a weakened dollar.

Philip Morris(MO Quote - Cramer on MO - Stock Picks): Will benefit from a flight to safety and a weakened dollar. .

Qwest(Q Quote - Cramer on Q - Stock Picks): Just lowered forecast, not expected to lower again. I am upset with this stock because the management has not been forthcoming; it chose to deny criticisms that later turned out to be, in part, true.

Schlumberger(SLB Quote - Cramer on SLB - Stock Picks): Will be a short-term beneficiary of higher oil prices and knee-jerk Mideast reaction.

Goldman Sachs(GS Quote - Cramer on GS - Stock Picks): Too low to sell now, but this stock's numbers are too high.

TRW(TRW Quote - Cramer on TRW - Stock Picks): Defense business is good, auto business is bad. Dividend cut taken in stride.

UnitedHealth(UNH Quote - Cramer on UNH - Stock Picks): UNH raised numbers the day of the crash. Will be re-recommended by people next week.

Universal Health Realty(UHT Quote - Cramer on UHT - Stock Picks): Safety name with good yield, looking to buy more this week.

Verizon(VZ Quote - Cramer on VZ - Stock Picks): Will benefit from a flight to safety. Short-term earnings hit, longer-term shows far better reliability than AT&T during crisis with wireless. Looking to buy more.

James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for the network of TSC sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Nonstaff contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. At the time of publication, Cramer was long all of the stocks in the Action Alert portfolio. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column to jjcletters@thestreet.com.
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