Expect a Strong American Comeback
Against the backdrop of carnage and horror inflicted by terrorists a few days ago, it may appear misguided to make a bullish case for equities. Shareholders of American companies are understandably nervous and concerned about equity positions with the news so bleak and with the economy already in precarious shape.
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Monetary Stimulus: It is a classic mistake for long-term investors to sell in the face of a flood of liquidity injected into the system by the Federal Reserve. Combine that with an about-face in government spending -- fiscal austerity is now an anachronism -- and a potent brew is being mixed that will benefit the financial markets.
Psychology: The mood of concern and retrenchment that dominated the economic landscape before Sept. 11 is already changing. It is being replaced by anger and energy. Don't underestimate the power of the American can-do spirit, of our steadfast determination to build and achieve. Expect to see increasing evidence in the coming months that the enormous collective energy of this great nation has been re-ignited.
Time: Intellectually, the bearish case always makes the most sense, especially when the economy is in decline. But time is the friend of the bull. The market indices have been in a bear market for about 18 months. History suggests that the nastiest bear markets last for 18 to 21 months, at most. Get ready for something new.
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| Dow Jones | S&P 500 | NASDAQ | 10-Year Note | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10,501.05 | 1,114.11 | 2,212.10 | 35.46 |
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