Shopping Forecast: Not Too Dismal

That's good news for discount stores like Dollar Tree (DLTR Quote - Cramer on DLTR - Stock Picks), which reported last week that sales were up 7% for the first quarter of its fiscal year. Wal-Mart (WMT Quote - Cramer on WMT - Stock Picks) and Target (TGT Quote - Cramer on TGT - Stock Picks) both saw same-store sales rise 3% in April compared to last year. Sales at warehouse club Costco (COST Quote - Cramer on COST - Stock Picks) went up 8% in the same month, as families stocked up on lower-cost bulk items.

To survive in this tough market, you have to show that your business -- whether it's a store or a service provider -- offers real value.

Who's Buying What

"I would draw a line between the products that consumers can buy in cash, and the products that have to be financed -- things like cars, furniture and expensive electronics. I think that category of big-ticket items will suffer for several quarters," says Ablin.

What about those government rebate checks, which are now arriving in mailboxes across the country? Retailers hope that extra money will give people an excuse to go shopping, but a Reuters/University of Michigan survey found that only about 30% of consumers plan to spend their rebate; the rest will put it into savings or use it to pay down debt.

The money that is spent -- which still adds up to billions of dollars -- will probably go to lower-end stores. After all, the high-income shoppers that patronize luxury boutiques won't be getting a government check.