Side Street

Not So Fast on That Bond Short...

I have heard that a lot lately. And Treasury Bonds are looking weak. The daily chart of the Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is showing a break of a support area from 117.50 to 118.50 with Tuesday's closing price. Price levels not seen since May 2012. And all of the Simple moving Averages (SMA) are pointing lower. In fact there was a Death Cross on Friday. Ominous right? The next gap area

lower forms between 111.70 and 112.70. $5 is some good coin. But the monthly chart may temper your enthusiasm to bet on the demise of Bonds. The bullish Andrew's Pitchfork that has been in control since the ETF started shows that all that has happened is the Median Line attracting price and then a slight overshoot. This happened back in May 2012 as well before it launched higher, and boy does that 10+ year uptrend look strong. But there are some cracks in the story. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is making a new lower low from the last touch at the Median Line and

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continuing down, with a Moving Average Convergence Divergence histogram (MACD) that is negative this time and growing. The MACD signal line is also pointing lower. This view shows that it will be tough to gain traction until it falls below 108. And looking at the actual Treasury Bond Prices shows that the long term rising channel from 1994 is in control. Yes it is pulling back from the top of the channel and the RSI and MACD support a further move lower. But the 135 level, 7 points lower

will need to fail to provide support before there is a chance at the bottom of the channel, much less a bearish movement long term. So go ahead and get a little short. But it is not time yet to bet the farm on a collapse.

THE BLOG: http://dragonflycap.com/2013/01/30/wed-am-6/

The Future Is So Bright I Gotta Wear Shades

Did some surfing of the financial blogosphere along with quite a few mainstream financial publications yesterday and the social mood has made a massive 180 from where it was even 30 days ago. One thing about markets is the humans left (ex machines) never change. After a stellar January everyone is pointing to the bright skies ahead as Europe is contained, China has accelerated and the U.S. surges to... well 2%-2.5% growth. Heck even bond yields are going up -- granted to areas once considered recessionary and would be associated with a calamity. Awesome move right? Almost back to 2% on the 10 year...

Well even in the context of the past 3 years... not so impressive. But this is another bullish thesis -- the beginning of "the great rotation" out of bonds and into stocks. For real this time? We won't know without the benefit of hindsight of course...

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But bigger picture when everyone is on the same side of the boat, generally the market rewards them all! Well not so much. Yes technically we are in an impressive breakout on the S&P 500 (and most indexes not named NASDAQ due to Apple), but we've begun to disassociate from most supports at this point. Even falling from the top of this channel to the bottom is over 30 S&P points, which in a year that has seen nothing over a 0.3% loss would feel like end of days. There will be a catalyst for at least a minor pullback -- we just don't know what or when. Frankly it could be good news at this point i.e. good news that the market sells off on. Or good news in a positively written paragraph from the Fed that causes the normal lemming reaction ("oh my gosh, they are going to take away our heroin any second now!") Etc. But until then we continue to dance along the top of this ascending channel and you can see almost every day now we are hitting the top of it. That's what happens when you start putting 7-8-9 days in a row up.

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Earnings continue to roll in, and as usual companies were busy slashing guidance over the past few months and now are beating those lowered guidances. This will be the last week of heavy S&P 500 type of reports and then things move to smaller fare.

It will be a busy week on the economic front. Consumer confidence Tuesday, ADP Employment Wednesday (+172K), Q4 GDP first pass Wednesday (expectations of 1.0%), FOMC Meeting announcement Wednesday afternoon, Chicago PMI Thursday, Monthly Employment Friday (+155K and 7.7% rate) and ISM Mfg Friday (50.7 expected, flat versus last month). Frankly I am a bit surprised that the employment data has not been increased considered back to back weeks of sub 350K weekly claims. Interesting.

CNNMoney has an interesting Fear and Greed index, showing we're reaching extremes...

THE BLOG: http://marketmontage.com/2013/01/28/the-future-is-so-bright-i-gotta-wear-shades/

Market Strategist Jeff Saut: Best Stock Ideas For Next 3-5 Years

Given that markets have been ripping higher, we thought it a prudent time to check in with market strategist Jeff Saut. His latest investment outlook is entitled "For All the Sad Words of Tongue and Pen" where he looks at how market rallies can last longer than one would think.

He highlights how at around the 18th day of a typical 17-25 day buying stampede, certain investors will start to question whether or not they've missed "the bottom." This then leads to a new round of buying from people who don't want to miss the big move, and thus the rally extends.

So when might this rally cease? Saut mentions rallies can typically last up to 30 sessions while today is session 18. He points out some of the cautious signals he is seeing:

"The S&P 500 (SPX/1502.96) remains overbought with 92.6% of its stocks above their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs), as well the NYSE McClellan Oscillator is still overbought in the short-term. However, the stock markets can remain overbought for longer than most think in a bull move. Further, the Volatility Index (VIX/12.89) is not confirming the renewed stock strength and some of the hitherto leading stocks are not acting well."

Raymond James' Best Stock Ideas For 3-5 Years

Saut recalls Ray Dalio's recent interview where the legendary manager said that "the shift of that massive amount of cash is what will be a game changer." If it moves into stocks (from pension funds and other large institutions), he wants to be prepared.

As such, Saut has highlighted his analysts' best stock ideas for a 3-5 year holding period with the following criteria:

- Recurring revenue stream
- High barriers to entry
- Not as dependent on economy/financial markets
- Can grow EBITDA at 5-10% annually
- Competitive edge in its sector
- Strong management

His analysts recommended the following stocks: Altera (ALTR), Conceptus (CPTS), Denbury Resources (DNR), NIC Corp (EGOB), Equinix (EQIX), EV Energy Partners (EVEP), IDEXX Labs (IDXX), Iridium Communications (IRDM), LKQ (LKQ), National Oilwell Varco (NOV), Verisk Analytics (VRSK), and Wabtec (WAB).

For more from this strategist, we've highlighted how Saut has been short-term conflicted and long-term bullish and how he's focused on housing as the key driver.

THE BLOG: http://www.marketfolly.com/2013/01/market-strategist-jeff-saut-best-stock.html

Eddy Elfenbein's Buy List Update

"Most investors want to do today what they should have done yesterday." - Larry Summers

In the CWS Market Review from two months ago, I wrote: "But with the election behind us, the clouds have cleared, and I see a strong year-end rally ahead of us. In fact, I think the S&P 500 can break 1,500 by the early part of 2013." Well, it took the index just 24 days into 2013 to vindicate our prediction.

On Thursday, the S&P 500 indeed broke through the 1,500 barrier for the first time since December 12, 2007. The index has now risen for seven days in a row, which is its longest winning streak since 2006. The Dow is off to its best start in more than a quarter of a century.

In this week's CWS Market Review, I want to focus on the Q4 earnings parade which continues to help our Buy List beat the market. Through Thursday, we're up 6.62% for the year, which is 1.81% ahead of the S&P 500. All 20 of our stocks are up for the year, and five have already logged double-digit gains.

But I have to warn you: I think the market's rally is starting to look a bit tired in the near-term. I don't see any major problems on the horizon, but I don't want investors thinking the last few weeks are "normal." They're not. There's still a lot of trouble out there for stocks that can't deliver. An example would be Apple's $250 plunge since September. Our Buy List is doing well, and it's not due to luck: it's due to quality.

Buy CA Technologies Up to $27 per Share

Last week, I said that CA Technologies (CA) should be able to beat Wall Street's earnings forecast, and that's exactly what happened. On Tuesday, CA reported fiscal Q3 earnings of 63 cents per share, which was two cents better than Wall Street's forecast. Quarterly revenue came in at $1.2 billion, which was also ahead of the Street at $1.17 billion.

This is considered to be a rather dull company, and some people think it's behind the times. But I see a good value. The day after the earnings report, the shares responded by rallying as high as $25.57 before pulling back some. If you recall from last week's issue, I raised the Buy Below price from $24 to $27. This is a solid stock, and it pays a generous dividend, but I don't want you chasing it if it continues to rally. I'm keeping my Buy Below price where it is. CA Technologies remains a good buy up to $27 per share.

We got more good news on Tuesday when Wells Fargo (WFC) announced that it's increasing its dividend by 14% (I also saw this coming). The bank is raising the quarterly payout from 22 cents to 25 cents per share. Bear in mind that the Federal Reserve still has many of these banks on double-secret probation, so any dividend increase must be approved by Bernanke and Friends. Earlier this month, Wells reported record quarterly earnings, and it beat Wall Street's forecast. Wells Fargo currently yields 2.84% and is a solid buy up to $37.

Stryker (SYK), the orthopedic implant maker, reported very good quarterly earnings on Wednesday. To be fair, the company had already told us to expect good news, yet the market continues to reward shares of SYK. With a 15.74% YTD gain, it's the #1-performing stock on our Buy List. Consider this fact: Shares of Stryker have lost ground only twice in the last 17 trading days.

For Q4, Stryker earned $1.14 per share, which was two cents more than Wall Street's estimate. For all of 2012, the company made $4.06 per share, which is a healthy increase over the $3.72 per share from 2011. That's very good growth for a sluggish economy.

I was particularly impressed that Stryker reiterated its full-year forecast for earnings to range between $4.25 and $4.40 per share. Frankly, that's probably too conservative, but it's smart to play it safe so early on in the year. Don't be surprised to see higher guidance from Stryker later this year.

Two weeks ago, I raised my Buy Below on Stryker to $62 per share. Even though the stock has run beyond that, I'm going to hold my Buy Below here. Again, I don't want investors to chase after good stocks. As always, our investment strategy involves discipline.

Microsoft Isn't the Disaster Everyone Thinks

After the closing bell on Thursday, Microsoft (MSFT) reported fiscal Q2 earnings of 76 cents per share, which was a penny ahead of expectations. I think these results were decent despite widespread claims that Windows 8 has been a bust.

For the quarter, Microsoft's profits dropped by 4% compared with last year. Quarterly revenue rose 3% to $21.46 billion, which was just shy of Wall Street's forecast of $21.53 billion. The Windows division makes up about one-quarter of Microsoft's overall business, and sales there rose by 11%. However, the company is getting slammed in its entertainment and office divisions.

To be sure, Microsoft has its share of problems. The online division is a financial black hole, and Xbox revenue is falling rapidly. On the plus side, Microsoft is doing better with business customers. That's often been a tough nut for MSFT to crack. They were able to sign up more customers to long-term contracts, which bodes well for future business.

The problems Microsoft is having are plaguing the entire PC sector, and that's one of the reasons why the company has joined a possible deal to take Dell (DELL) private. I think one analyst summed it up well when he said, "Microsoft is evolving really into an enterprise software company."

The bottom line is that Microsoft is a company with a lot of problems. But the share price is well beneath the fair value. The stock is currently going for less than 10 times this fiscal year's earnings. Microsoft remains a good buy up to $30.

More Buy List Earnings Next Week

We had some more good news this week from other Buy List stocks. I was pleased to see Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) get a 4.4% lift on Thursday thanks to an upgrade from Oppenheimer. BBBY is still a good buy up to $60 per share.

Ross Stores (ROST) got a 3.5% boost on Thursday after it was upgraded to outperform by Credit Suisse. They raised their price target on ROST from $60 to $68. Ross Stores is an excellent buy up to $62.

I'm writing this early Friday, and later today Moog (MOG-A) will report earnings. In the CWS Market Review from November 16, when Moog was going for $34, I said it could "be a $45 stock within a year." Try within ten weeks. Moog just broke $45, but don't chase it if it crosses $46.

Next week, we get earnings reports from Ford (F), Harris (HRS) and CR Bard (BCR). I'm especially looking forward to strong results from Ford. The consensus on Wall Street is for earnings of 26 cents per share, and Ford should beat that by a lot. I haven't heard details yet from Nicholas Financial (NICK), but it's very likely they'll also report next week.

That's all for now. Earnings season continues next week. The government will also give us a first look at Q4 GDP report. Next Friday will be the important jobs report. The jobless claims reports have been quite good recently, so that may be a harbinger of a strong jobs number. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I'll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!

-Eddy

THE BLOG: http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2013/01/cws-market-review-january-25-2013.html

Everything Dies, Baby -- That's a Fact (7 Lessons From Apple)

Springsteen had it about right.

This morning, Apple (AAPL) is gapping down to multi-year lows, headed solidly into Jeff Gundlach's target territory in the low $400s, it would seem.

It's one of the most widely held stocks in the world, by individuals and pros, and had briefly become the largest stock by market value as well. Selling the stock had become something of a heresy by early 2012 and those who were not at least equal-weight the name were condemned, by basic arithmetic, to under-performance purgatory.

But nothing lasts forever.

Apple had never been a recommendation of ours, but we've liked the stock (and certainly the company). We've got some clients who had transferred in Apple shares from elsewhere, with cost averages all over the map. Last October, we trimmed those AAPL positions by a third to a half, owing to the technical breakdown below $600. But the rest of it we were compelled to keep for the much longer term. The way the stock's being treated of late, I find myself pining for a time machine. ...

While the business of Apple is in great shape and the company remains incredibly healthy, the stock itself is in the throes of a major event -- the realization that nothing lasts forever.

This blog has always been about taking lessons from both good and bad market events. For those who got Apple right toward the top and were short, this is a great validation of a very contrarian call. For those who've held on to the stock or bought any of the false bottoms in the $500s and $600s, this is a tough day but one in which several things can be learned.

Here are what I believe to be the seven most important lessons:

1. A fairly minor change in fundamentals for a company can occur subtly, but have a major impact on share price. In this case, Apple's growth rate. The company did not slam on the brakes, nor did its customers, and has not hit The Street with a jaw-dropping susprise loss or anything like that. (See Rolfe Winkler at the WSJ for the actual growth numbers this quarter.) But this growth rate was unimpressive relative to expectations, and expectations are everything in the short term.

2. There is no King of All Stocks -- we merely elect a temporary king, who then serves an indeterminate term at the top. Sooner or later, he is deposed -- and frequently beheaded. For a great corollary, please see the charts below from Justin and Paul at Bespoke comparing the rise and fall of Apple to the rise and fall of Microsoft (MSFT).

3. Jeff Gundlach is dabbling in the occult. Here he is in May of last year warning that the stock is toast. And his victory lap this morning, lowering his price target to $300 from the initial $425 (from when the stock was $700).

4. There's no such thing as a tech value stock. This is something we've discussed here a lot. Apple's cash position, which grows by the second, is north of $125 billion, or 37% of the market cap. Netting out that cash, the stock trades at 7.1 times this year's earnings -- half the multiple of the S&P 500. Nobody cares. The shareholder base comprises trapped momentum guys and GARP fund managers, not value managers. They'll come in later when growth has truly ground to a halt. For now, the company's balance sheet will avail it no mercy, no quarter.

5. The good news is that a quarter like we read about yesterday means expectations are being reset lower. They're more achievable levels. Jay Yarow says this is the most constructive thing to happen for the company in a while.

6. My friend Brian Shannon, a technician and hardcore trader, noted today that news and surprises from a company tend to follow in the direction of the stock price. This is an insight so completely elemental to investing and trading that everyone should know it. A downtrending stock, unable to hold support and with evidence of distribution, will tend to have negative announcements and news events. A stock under accumulation and "acting well" will typically surprise to the upside. This is because the market knows and there is a such thing as business momentum to go along with stock momentum. Look at Celgene (CELG) for a positive example of this.

7. Innovate, execute -- period. If Apple cannot innovate and execute the way it historically has, nothing else you read or see will matter. That's the bottom line. So can it? Most of the chattering classes believe it cannot. That Steve Jobs is gone and Tim Cook is a bean counter. One of the nation's premier Apple watchers disagrees, however. He thinks capital expenditures tell the tale of a company just warming up. From The Economist today:

​ "However, Horace Dediu of Asymco, a research firm, says it would be a mistake to think Apple is resting on its laurels. He notes that its capital expenditures have soared in recent quarters, reaching levels typically seen at firms with huge manufacturing operations, such as Intel (INTC) (see chart 3).

Some of this money is going into data centers to support cloud services like iTunes. But Mr. Dediu reckons much of it is being spent on dedicated production equipment at suppliers. This could give Apple an edge in producing new gadgets."

On Dec. 15, in describing the carnage in Apple headed into year-end, I speculated that Apple probably had to get under $500 at some point to test the desperation of sellers to be out of it. Well, now it's here, and the sellers don't seem to be phased by valuations or anything else -- this is a broken momentum stock and nobody wants to be caught dead with it on the books.

I don't have any sense as to when this ends. But I think the points above are the best takeaways from the episode so far.

THE BLOG: http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2013/01/24/everything-dies-baby-thats-a-fact-seven-lessons-from-apple/

The Nasdaq Catch-Up Trade

This past weekend in my Macro Week in Review/Preview for clients I noted that for the second week in a row the markets looked bullish but with the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) lagging the S&P 500 (SPY), and Russell 2000 (IWM). In fact it is also lagging the Dow 30 (DIA) and Dow Transports (TRAN). If you take a look at the performance chart below since January 2nd the Nasdaq has been moving sideways while every other index has been rising. There is no rule that says that this

cannot persist, but like the stubborn little kid that does not want to follow the rest of the family, when left alone long enough it will likely try to catch up. So how do you prepare for this to happen? Well there are several ways. The simplest is to just prepare to buy the ETF $QQQ when it breaks the range over 67.50. But you could also reduce some risk and play it as a pairs trade. Sell one of the indexes that has been a high performer on a dollar for dollar basis against a long position in the

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$QQQ looking for a mean reversion. Or if that is too much trouble managing two positions, use options and buy calls in the $QQQ to limit your risk to the premium paid and at the same time increase your leverage to an upside move. With IBM and Google both reporting Tuesday night and Apple due to report Wednesday after the close, the timing seems right.

THE BLOG: http://dragonflycap.com/2013/01/23/wed-am-5/

Vegas Stocks: The House Always Wins

The monthly chart of Las Vegas Sands is one that i have referred to periodically in this blog over the years. The jaw-dropping crash from roughly $150 down to a $1 handle during the 2007-2009 bear market had many thinking the major casino operator was on the brink of going out of business. However, a sharp snapback off the March 2009 lows put those fears on the backburner.

Over the next few years, we saw a textbook psychologically progression after a crash and subsequent snapback -- a flattening out period where each bit of bad news was absorbed increasingly better. As a result, Sands is still holding the lion's share of its bear market bottom snapback rally. Plowing through $60 is sure to get bulls increasingly giddy for a multi-year base breakout.

Earnings are coming up soon, but as long as $36 holds the double-dip Vegas bears are caught in a rundown here regardless.

THE BLOG: http://ibankcoin.com/chessnwine/2013/01/22/vegas-bears-caught-in-a-rundown/

Biotechs Looking Frothy

After a spectacular 2012, the biotechs as a whole are holding up rather well in the first few weeks of 2013. However, as a bull run matures we inevitably seen leadership narrow and rotations emerge. Two of the larger components of the biotech sector, AMGN and REGN, have flashed some blinking yellow lights over the past few weeks. Note the uptick in selling volume accompanying each recent sell-off. Amgen bulls likely need to hold $83 to avoid confirming a nasty head and shoulders topping pattern, while you can bet Regeneron bears are playing for a breakdown below $164.

Make no mistake, there are other biotechs exuding resiliency here. However, there are indeed two sides to every rotation.

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THE BLOG: http://ibankcoin.com/chessnwine/2013/01/18/beware-biotech-overdose/

Bad News Ignored, Good News Embraced

After the twin good news items today premarket there was a stinker at 10 AM in the Philly Fed. The S&P 500 came in but only very briefly and did not even fill the morning gap up. So all in all, we can say today the good news was embraced and the bad news ignored. That's a bullish sign near term. Also after the first hour the gap up is holding, a good technical sign. The longer the morning gap up holds, the better the bull case for today. As for the daily picture we finally see a clearance of that mid 1470s area which has been a headache aka Sep 2012 intraday highs. All this quicksand action has also helped work off the overbought conditions the market has been dealing with since the big gap up Jan 2. Here is an update on the channel the SPX has been traveling since mid November (with the exception of the massive headfake down late December) If you are a Tom DeMark fan the top end of the channel is roughly where he said this move would end.

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THE BLOG: http://marketmontage.com/2013/01/17/bad-news-ignored-good-news-embraced/

It's Burger Time -- the Stocks, Not the Food

We learned recently from Yum Brands, YUM, that the Chinese are not eating enough Kentucky Fried Chicken and the stock took a nose dive. Many thought that fast food was the problem broadly. But I recall a wise man once saying, I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today. That man, Whimpie of Popeye fame, must have been buying the hamburger stocks with his money as he was asking his friends for a handout. For now it is Tuesday and a look at the charts of the burger joints shows they have had some great moves and look ready for more. Smart man that Whimpie.

Burger King Worldwide, BKW

Burger King Worldwide, BKW, has been trending higher since September and retraced its move lower from just after the IPO in June. With a bounce off of the retest of that level at the end of December it is now consolidating under 18.01, the 150% Fibonacci extension of that move. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish and rising and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (MACD) is positive, both supporting further upside movement. The next spot to enter is over 18.01 for a Measured Move higher to 20.

McDonald's, MCD

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McDonald's, MCD, had a bit of a rough time in 2012 after peaking just under 100. But since id November the trend has been higher with a healthy pullback to the 50 day Simple Moving Average (SMA) to end the year. This created a target on a Measured Move higher to 94.50. It has a positive MACD and a bullish RSI but both are fading a bit. Wait for a move over 92 to enter this stock.

Sonic, SONC

Sonic, SONC, is moving higher after a basing between 9.25 and 10.75 from July through year end. It has support for more upside from a the RSI and MACD as well. The cautionary Shooting Star from Monday was not comfirmed. Instead it moved back higher and now a move over 11.10 can be your entry.

Wendy's/Arby's, WEN

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Wendy's/Arby's, WEN, is the final burger joint ad it reports earnings Wednesday morning. After running lower in a channel beginning in February 2012 it bottomed and has been moving higher since late October. The RSI is bullish and rising and the MACD is about to cross to positive. It also printed a Golden Cross a few days ago, with the 50 day SMA crossing over the 200 day SMA. A positive reaction to the earnings report is your buy signal.

THE BLOG: http://dragonflycap.com/2013/01/15/burger-night/