The Market Update

Weekend Reading: Recessionary Headwinds

Stock quotes in this article: ^DJI , ^IXIC , ^GSPC , LOGI , MSFT , CFC  

Welcome to another edition of Weekend Reading. First a look back at the week that just finished, then a look forward to the week ahead, and finally some articles and papers worth reading.

It was a poor week on the major markets, but it could have been much worse. It felt as if recession news, deepening credit problems and a general sense of malaise had us teetering on a market edge. The week ended with the Dow and S&P 500 down 3.0% and 2.8%, respectively, while the Nasdaq lost 2.6%.

Next week will see more recessionary headwinds. Without a doubt, data will increasingly show that we already are in a recession, which won't put investors in an upbeat mood. Then again, while such news isn't pleasant, it does remove a source of economic uncertainty and move the recession-related questions to "how bad" and "how long." That's a kind of progress, at least in market terms. At the same time, expectations are growing that we will see a 50-basis-point rate cut, perhaps as early as next week.

Turning to economic news, we'll see international trade data Tuesday, the February retail sales report Thursday and the February consumer price index on Friday. Also Friday, Reuters and the University of Michigan plan to release their consumer sentiment survey.

As for earnings, it will be a light week. Among the relatively few companies reporting is American Eagle Outfitters(AEO Quote).

Finally, here are some articles and papers worth reading:

Editor's note: To access some of these stories, registration or a subscription may be required. Please check the individual links for the site's policy.

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At time of publication, Kedrosky had no positions in stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.

Dr. Paul Kedrosky is a former highly ranked sell-side technology equity analyst, and he currently runs a technology finance institute at the University of California, San Diego. He is also a venture partner with Ventures West, an institutional venture capital firm with more than $400 million under management. He maintains a widely read blog called Infectious Greed.

Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. While Kedrosky cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.





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