Updated from 9:14 a.m. EDT
Things are brutal out there. No question about that. Here I am all day, stuck being a bull, trying to defend equity prices to the various bears that I talk to all day, only to have equity prices slide horribly against me. As the stock market hits multiyear lows, there are a few credit indicators that I quickly want to look at, which suggest the worst for the stock market might be over:- TED Spreads, which reflect the difference in yield (and therefore risk) between InterBank and U.S government loans, are trading at record lows of 1.00 (or 100 bps). TED spreads right after the Bear collapse were over 2.00 (or 100% higher). Historically, a rising TED spread often foretells a downturn in the U.S. stock market as liquidity is being withdrawn. Thus, a massive drop in spreads should be followed with increased liquidity and potentially some upward movement in stocks.
- Two- and 10-year swap spreads, which reflect the riskless rate of treasury securities, plus the credit risk associated with the financial sector, are near their lows for the year.
- Recent Federal Reserve term securities lending facility loans have had extremely low bid/cover ratios. Last week, the Federal Reserve made availed $25 billion in T-notes; however, the money-center banks "only" took $15.4 billion from this latest action. This suggests that money-center banks might not be as dreadful at this point as the media pundits would like us to believe.
- 3Com(COMS Quote): Down 11.5% on the week, although at one point it was up 5%.
- Huntsman(HUN Quote): Down 16.7% on the week, although at one point it was up 5%, after UBS upgraded the stock with a $15 price target.
- KeyCorp(KEY Quote): This snapback play worked fairly well; shares of KeyCorp where up as much as 6% during the week
- Fifth Third Bancortp(FITB Quote): Was up as much as 10% during the week, but finished about flat.
- Deere(DE Quote): Down 7.5% on the week, as the whole agricultural sector got crushed.
- AIG(AIG Quote): Down 13.3% on the week.
- North American Energy(NOA Quote): Reported earnings per share for the quarter of 63 cents compared with 4 cents per share in the prior year, but ended the week down 14.5%.
- Research In Motion(RIMM Quote): Down 17.4% for the week after missing earnings by a penny, citing higher marketing costs.
- Kodak Oil & Gas(KOG Quote): Was up over 10% during the week, but ended the week down 11.3%.
- Monsanto(MON Quote): Down 9.1% on the week.
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| Dow Jones | S&P 500 | NASDAQ | 10-Year Note | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10,023.42 | 1,069.30 | 2,112.44 | 34.93 |
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