Slump Won't Dent Back-to-School Sales

SAN FRANCISCO -- As back-to-school season enters full swing, housing and credit worries likely aren't keeping shoppers at bay.

Consumers -- particularly those in college -- are still expected to pull out their wallets this season. According to the National Retail Federation, back-to-school spending on kids from kindergarten to high school is expected to climb 4.4% this season to $18.4 billion.

Back-to-college spending, representing shoppers over 18 in college or post-graduate programs, is projected to surge 29% year over year to $47.3 billion.

Marie Driscoll, a retail analyst for Standard & Poor's, says back-to-college spending will likely benefit from a projected 1.9% increase in college enrollment this year. Moreover, retailers have made a stronger effort in recent years to reach out to college shoppers, who are more likely to spend money on high-priced items such as iPods, laptops and dorm and apartment furnishings.

Overall, retailers are looking to come back from what has been a sluggish summer for sales. Many chain stores -- including big names in the teen sector such as Abercrombie & Fitch(ANF) and American Eagle(AEO) -- reported soft sales for July.

The weakness was partly blamed on a late start in the school season in Texas and Florida, as well as a timing shift in a tax-free sales week in several states.

Industry observers also noted that shoppers are growing more unwilling to make their back-to-school purchases so early in the summer, preferring instead to wait until August and September. Investors will get an idea of how much weight this theory holds on Thursday, when most chain stores report their August sales figures.