Obama Takes North Carolina, Loses Indiana

One reality remains clear in the democratic race to be the presidential nominee -- neither candidate can get enough pledged delegates in the remaining primaries, so superdelegates must decide the race.

Nothing shocking happened in Tuesday's primaries. Sen. Barack Obama (D., Ill.) won as expected in North Carolina by a large margin, and he lost small in Indiana to Sen. Hillary Clinton (D., N.Y.). Obama added slightly to his pledged delegate lead and popular vote total.

A month ago, Obama led the polls in North Carolina by almost 20 points, while polls in Indiana reported no decisive edge for either candidate. African-Americans play a large role in North Carolina. They make up about 34% of the Democratic electorate in the state, and they overwhelmingly chose Obama over Clinton by more than 90%. Indiana borders Obama's home state of Illinois. The expensive media market from Illinois covers about 25% of Indiana, which Obama exploited with an advantage in ads.

In the end, Obama won North Carolina by 14 points, 56%-42%. He managed to win the female vote in the state decisively by 55%-43%, according to exit polls from MSNBC. Clinton has never won a primary when she failed to win women. Clinton won with white men and women but not by enough to overcome African-American turnout in the Tar Heel state.

In Indiana, the race proved razor close. According to exit polls from CNN, Clinton won women 51%-49% and lost men 49%-51%. Women voters outnumbered men to women by 12 points, 56%-44%, handing her the advantage. Clinton said this of her win in Indiana:

"Tonight, Hoosiers have said that you do want a President who stands strong for you, a President who is ready on Day One to take charge as Commander-in-Chief and keep our families safe; a President who knows how to make this economy work for hardworking middle class families."

Clinton congratulated Obama on his win in North Carolina and pledged party unity come the fall.

Obama gave an upbeat speech in North Carolina, saying:

"More importantly, because of you, we have seen that it's possible to overcome the politics of division and distraction; that it's possible to overcome the same old negative attacks that are always about scoring points and never about solving our problems. We've seen that the American people aren't looking for more spin or more gimmicks, but honest answers about the challenges we face."

He subtly remarked on the hullabaloo over his pastor, Reverend Jeremiah Wright, whom he broke with last week. Wright appeared several times in the press last week and repeatedly reinforced divisive statements from sermons over the years. Clearly, Obama hopes it that flap will not effect the outcome in the last few races nor the decision to be made by superdelegates.

Ultimately, no new information surfaced to help superdelegates make a decision, though party leaders hope they will decide the race in early June. The next important decision made by the Democratic party comes on May 31 when the future of the Florida and Michigan delegates will be decided: Do they or don't the get seated in the democratic convention in August?

The cards favor Obama, however. He lead in pledged delegates, the popular votes, and he has closed the gap in superdelegates. On the other hand, Clinton needs the party to decide to seat Florida and Michigan, which would get her closer in delegates and possibly allow her to win the popular vote. If she wins the popular vote, it offers her a slim chance to convince superdelegates to choose her. However, they must decide overwhelmingly in her favor, better than three out of five, which will be a tall task.

The six remaining primaries on the calendar favor Clinton. She has huge leads in both Kentucky and West Virginia along with a sizeable advantage in Puerto Rico. Obama presently leads in Oregon. Montana and South Dakota finish off the primary season on June 3, and no substantial polling exists. Clinton must finish strong in order to overcome the early strength of Obama's campaign from contests held in February.

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