McCain Brushed, Not Tainted, by Lobbyist Scandal

Today, The New York Times ran a story, "For McCain, Self-Confidence on Ethics Poses Its Own Risk," which has set the political world aflutter with talk of an implied romantic relationship between McCain and lobbyist Vicki Iseman.

The Times apparently held the story in December before running it today, but the overarching question is: Will it have any lasting effect on McCain's chances to win the presidency?

The answer: It will blow over.

First things first. Both McCain and Iseman deny any impropriety or romantic relations.

But it bears mentioning that the story could prove potentially harmful in two ways.

First, the piece says Iseman became close to John McCain in 1999, and she then showed up with McCain everywhere and reports that anonymous staffers said they were concerned about a romantic relationship. The allegations in the piece bring memories of McCain leaving his first wife, Carol, because of marital infidelity. McCain had admitted to extramarital affairs at that time.

What has been confirmed about this liaison is that John Weaver, a former McCain strategist, met with Iseman and warned her to stay away from McCain. McCain had an image problem in the 1990s due to his involvement in the Keating Five scandal, and he resurrected his political career by fighting special interests. Close ties to a lobbyist could harm this effort. Weaver was instrumental to rebuilding McCain's career and preparing him for runs in 2000 and 2008.

The second danger is that Iseman was lobbying for telecommunications firms at the time, and according to the Center for Responsive Politics, McCain has received significant financing from telephone and communications firms during his career in Congress and his presidential campaigns. Telecommunications, however, does not make it into his top ten of industries donating to his campaigns. As a man who resurrected his career by attacking special interests, this sort of revelation about a lobbyist could hurt him.

However, McCain gave a solid performance this morning in a press conference to deny the allegations. He came off as sincere and believable while speaking and answering questions from the media, and his wife Cindy was at his side.

My guess is that this story will blow over soon, unless there is more to be revealed. First, the so-called relationship happened almost a decade ago. Second, both people have strongly denied any wrongdoing, and there are no credible witnesses to substantiate any affair.

Furthermore, the media has bought lock, stock and smoking barrel into McCain's image: the Straight Talk Express. McCain's willingness to talk openly with the media has charmed them into writing a positive narrative about his image, and without hard information, I don't see that changing.

Finally, for intrade junkies, McCain's price on the presidency fell to 33 from 36, a minimal blip.