Kass' Top 25 Surprises: How Am I Doing?

Editor's Note: This blog post originally appeared on RealMoney Silver on Aug. 6 at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Check out James Altucher's take on Kass' 25 Surprises.

It has been seven months since my surprise list for 2007 was written, so it's time to review how accurate I was.

But first, how I go about my list. Taking a page from former Morgan Stanley strategist Byron Wien, now the chief investment strategist at Pequot Capital Management, every December I prepare a list of 25 possible surprises for the coming year. These are not intended to be predictions but rather events that have a reasonable chance of occurring despite the general perception that the odds are very long. I call these "possible improbable" events.

The real purpose of this endeavor is to consider positioning a portion of my portfolio in accordance with outlier events -- with large payoffs. After all, Wall Street research is still very much convention and "groupthink," despite the reforms over the past several years. Mainstream and consensus expectations are just that, and in most cases they are deeply imbedded into today's stock prices. If I succeed in making you think about outlier events, then the exercise has been worthwhile. Not all of these surprises are stock- or market-related; I also delve into some popular-culture issues in the business world to mix things up.

(James Altucher took a look at my surprise list and added his two bits, and I look forward to his update.)