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This blog post originally appeared on
on March 6 at 9:56 a.m. EST.
On Monday night, I
The Kudlow Report
" that the stock market could be within three days of making a 2009 bottom.
As yesterday was the third day, my forecast is now on the line.
I am not hiding from my bottom call. If anything, I feel even better today than I did on Monday evening with Sir Larry Kudlow that my expectation might prove to be accurate, particularly in the current backdrop of attractive valuations and an extremely negative sentiment reading, or, as I describe, "
." Most important, there are initial signs that several elements on my checklist are turning more positive.
Not surprisingly, many investors suffering wealth destruction from the downward spiral in stock prices have grown increasingly impatient. They want instant satisfaction from Mr. Market, but, as
Helene Meisler often reminds us, tops are umbrellas and bottoms are saucers.
I see the bottoming process as commencing now.
Today, the jobs numbers' prior-month revisions confirmed what we all know; the employment picture is poor. The newly minted permabear media -- they were permabulls for years! -- are dwelling on the weak release but are failing, in my view, to recognize that it's how markets respond to bad news that is often more important than the news itself. So stay tuned!
I addressed the significance of the market as a discounting mechanism in my "
Fear and Loathing on Wall Street
" column recently. Indeed, how stocks behave in the face of dire fundamentals is one of the primary points on my checklist for a market rise. On Wednesday night's, "The Kudlow Report," I
a positive market reaction to weak
(COST - Get Report)
earnings as a positive signal that the market might have discounted the current chaos.
It is for the above reasons (and others) that I remain optimistic that an important bottom in the U.S. stock market is being put in.
Doug Kass writes daily for
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Know What You Own: Dell operates in the personal computer industry, and some of the other stocks in its field include Apple (AAPL - Get Report) and Hewlett Packard (HPQ - Get Report). Costco operates in the discount variety store industry, and some of the other stocks in its field include Wal-Mart (WMT - Get Report), Target (TGT - Get Report) and Family Dollar (FDO). For more on the value of knowing what you own, visit
Investing A-to-Z section.
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