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Kass: Standing By My Bottom Call

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This blog post originally appeared on RealMoney Silver on March 6 at 9:56 a.m. EST.

On Monday night, I suggested on " The Kudlow Report" that the stock market could be within three days of making a 2009 bottom.

As yesterday was the third day, my forecast is now on the line.

I am not hiding from my bottom call. If anything, I feel even better today than I did on Monday evening with Sir Larry Kudlow that my expectation might prove to be accurate, particularly in the current backdrop of attractive valuations and an extremely negative sentiment reading, or, as I describe, " Irrational Non-Exuberance." Most important, there are initial signs that several elements on my checklist are turning more positive.

Not surprisingly, many investors suffering wealth destruction from the downward spiral in stock prices have grown increasingly impatient. They want instant satisfaction from Mr. Market, but, as RealMoney's Helene Meisler often reminds us, tops are umbrellas and bottoms are saucers.

I see the bottoming process as commencing now.

Today, the jobs numbers' prior-month revisions confirmed what we all know; the employment picture is poor. The newly minted permabear media -- they were permabulls for years! -- are dwelling on the weak release but are failing, in my view, to recognize that it's how markets respond to bad news that is often more important than the news itself. So stay tuned!

I addressed the significance of the market as a discounting mechanism in my " Fear and Loathing on Wall Street" column recently. Indeed, how stocks behave in the face of dire fundamentals is one of the primary points on my checklist for a market rise. On Wednesday night's, "The Kudlow Report," I cited a positive market reaction to weak Dell (DELL) and Costco (COST) earnings as a positive signal that the market might have discounted the current chaos.

It is for the above reasons (and others) that I remain optimistic that an important bottom in the U.S. stock market is being put in.

Doug Kass writes daily for RealMoney Silver , a premium bundle service from TheStreet.com. For a free trial to RealMoney Silver and exclusive access to Mr. Kass's daily trading diary, please click here.


Know What You Own: Dell operates in the personal computer industry, and some of the other stocks in its field include Apple (AAPL) and Hewlett Packard (HPQ). Costco operates in the discount variety store industry, and some of the other stocks in its field include Wal-Mart (WMT), Target (TGT) and Family Dollar (FDO). For more on the value of knowing what you own, visit TheStreet.com's Investing A-to-Z section.


How you can survive -- and even prosper -- in a rocky midyear market? Get the "best ideas to make real money" from Jim Cramer, Doug Kass, Helene Meisler and other RealMoney experts at our May 2 Investment Conference. Learn more here.

At the time of publication, Kass and/or his funds had no positions in the stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.

Doug Kass is founder and president of Seabreeze Partners Management, Inc., and the general partner and investment manager of Seabreeze Partners Short LP and Seabreeze Partners Long/Short LP.

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