I look at the NCAA men's basketball tournament and see the exact opposite of the stock market right now. It's Memphis, UCLA, North Carolina and Kansas playing for the title. The four top seeds in each bracket: 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = Final 4.
That's the way the math is supposed to add up, isn't it? Completely predictable. But it generally doesn't play out that way during March Madness. And if you've followed the tournament closely, you know that there were a lot of underdog victories in the early rounds, before these "Four Horsemen" rode to the tops of the brackets. There's usually an underdog that takes its game to a new level, steals the country's heart and breaks into the Final Four. And we love that volatility.
People who are bummed at the unpredictability of the market these days should remember that. They should remember how much we love volatility in the NCAA tournament, and the same can go for the current market. Yes, it's a time of unpredictability, but that presents opportunities, as you can see by looking at my latest picks, and by the fact that like the tournament this year, the strongest companies typically rise to the top.
Today's deep-in-the-money call play is on another No. 1 seed,
(UTX - Get Report)
, which provides products and services including elevators, air conditioners and helicopters. With Helicopter Ben Bernanke at the
helm, and the U.S. Treasury ready to rev up consumers' engines with a drop of $150 billion in tax rebates next month, UTX should be moving up the key level elevator that I use to set my DITM options strategy for this name.
UTX is rated a buy according to ValuEngine with fair value at $78.93. The stock closed at $68.82 Monday, after trading to a low of $68.16. That price seems like a good entry level to guide us into today's options play. The 21-day simple moving average rests at $68.85 and the five-day modified moving average stands around $69.09, and those two factors should have the stock moving up in the near term. The upside is to the five-week modified moving average at $69.93 and to the 50-day simple moving average at $70.70.
Given all of that, here is my trade idea: buy 10 UTX November $45.00 calls (UTXKI) using a limit order at $24.10, or better.
Always Remember: Life is a journey; enjoy the ride.
Know What You Own
: United Technologies is a conglomerate that competes with other giant companies, including
(GE - Get Report)
(BA - Get Report)
(HON - Get Report)
. These stocks were recently trading at $37.01, $74.37, $56.42 and $57.51, respectively. For more on the value of knowing what you own, visit TheStreet.com's