Research In Motion's Dangerous Waiting Game

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Maybe the best indicator of how far Research In Motion(RIMM) has fallen out of favor is that on a day when the Nasdaq Composite galloped to an 11-year high, shares of the Blackberry maker lost another 2% to close at $16.88, down nearly 73% in the past year.

The main impetus for the weakness on Friday was a downgrade from Jefferies, which announced its move to underperform from hold in a research note entitled, "We Want to Believe ... But Just Can't Yet."

The firm, which also cut its price target by 11.8% to $15 from $17, basically said it doesn't really see any good news on the horizon for RIM, especially if the crux of its strategy is to continue battling it out in the smartphone wars with Apple(AAPL) and Google(GOOG).

"Our checks indicate RIM will delay and possibly abandon its OS licensing plans and its email/BBM/social networking app in favor of direct competition with Apple/Android," With no near-term positive headlines now expected and with St. [Wall Street] still far too high for FY13 (Feb) at $3.17 vs. our $2.00 est, we cut our target to $15 and downgrade to Underperform as we await the BB10 launch (likely Sep)."

Jefferies had upgraded RIM to hold on Dec. 21, citing valuation with the stock trading below $13 at the time and a belief that the company was investigating potential partnerships and could announce a deal in the spring.

Now, with the stock having jumped more than 25% since the start of 2012, boosted along with many of 2011's other big losers such as Bank of America(BAC), First Solar(FSLR), and Netflix(NFLX), the valuation part of that equation is gone.

Since the upgrade, the company has also named Thorsten Heins to be its sole CEO on Jan. 22, and it's still somewhat of a guessing game which strategic direction he plans to steer RIM. Heins has been meeting with analysts since he took the reins, and Jefferies said it came away from its pow-pow with him impressed with the man but not his near-term strategy.

Instead of seeking to license BlackBerry 10 to Samsung and launching a messaging/email and social networking app for iOS and Android for a monthly fee, the firm expects Heins to present a new plan to RIM's board within two weeks to postpone or cancel those plans and instead "compete head-to-head with the Apple, Android, and Windows ecosystems with their own integrated hardware/software/services ecosystem."