Smarter Money: Cease and Desist!

I don't get those emails any more. The people who "bet against me" are now margined out, flat on their back, out of the game. The people who hounded me with, "How can you take something off the table, the bull market lives," aren't even in the stadium to boo anymore.

Don't get me wrong. I am not gloating. But the comeuppance of those who thought this game was easy isn't so terrible. The notion that you can look at a chart and determine a stock's direction, without any other information, is strictly a bull-market notion. In bear markets, charts get created by Buzz and Batch. In bear markets, the volume is so thin that the chart doesn't mean jack.

I know dozens of people who, in the last year, have quit their jobs to go try to call the next point or two in stocks. They pick certain stocks and trade them all day. Or they work on what they regard to be safer Nasdaq stocks and trade them.

Again, that's strictly a bull-market notion. Most stocks aren't that susceptible to calling the next point. And most people aren't good enough, in tough times, to do it. I think that most of these people will be out of work in the next three months if the Fed stays tight. They simply won't be able to pay the rent any more.

Think about it. Yesterday when Cisco (CSCO - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) was at 55, we had talked to every major firm that trades Cisco and a ton of large Cisco holders. Not one person was willing to say that this great stock could close at 56 or better. Not one could tell us that it would not go out at 54. Mind you, like me, these people have traded Cisco since its inception. Like me, they are feeling the pulse of every single large Cisco holder. Like me, they have traded professionally for years and years and years.

Yet I get email from people telling me, "Mind you, Cisco's going out at 57 today." Or I read the chat boards, and there are people telling me that Cisco will be at 50 in moments. The disconnect right now between the grizzled vets and the summer soldiers is at an all time high. Those who think that Stanley Shopkorn, who had a huge year last year -- not like some of the other vets bailing -- is a fuddy duddy and a fool for being frustrated -- these people should look to their left and to their right today, as they furiously day trade. Two of you aren't going to be in the business come the fall.

Most of our readers are not daytraders. They are people trying to figure out their finances. They are not about to get up from their real jobs and go against the pros trading Cisco. My advice to you, keep reading, keep learning, but stop trading for now.

It is just too hard. I'll let you know when it gets easier. I always hate to use the term bear market because you never know when it is going to switch to a bull. But the bettor in me says it won't until people stop quitting their real jobs to go up against the Stanley Shopkorns of the world.

In this market, you don't have a chance.