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Intel Downside: ABN Amro Says the Stock May Fall Under $20

Dan Bernstein

The big news on Intel(INTC) comes after the closing bell, but one analyst that tracks the company whipped up a little news of his own, downgrading the stock to reduce from hold.

ABN Amro analyst Paul Leming says the chipmaker's stock may fall below $20, a 31% drop from Monday's close of $29.13. The analyst also said that in tonight's second-quarter earnings report, Intel "will either miss the consensus estimate for the quarter (noticeably), or will make the quarter by borrowing so heavily from the third quarter that third quarter earnings will be very disappointing."

Intel eased 50 cents, or 1.7%, to $28.63 out of the gate this morning.

Intel is expected to post earnings of 10 cents a share for the second quarter, as the company reiterated in June. When Intel reported its first-quarter earnings, the company said it expected second-quarter revenue to be flat to down 10%.

Leming wrote this morning: "Since Intel 'reiterated its guidance' on the second quarter, there have been numerous pieces of data which suggest Intel will not meet consensus expectations," including recent indications from Advanced Micro Devices(AMD) and STMicroelectronics(STM) on the worsening outlook for the flash memory business.

Leming reduced his fiscal 2001 earnings estimates on Intel to 42 cents a share from 56 cents -- the Thomson Financial/First Call consensus was 53 cents a share -- and cut his fiscal 2002 expectations to 60 cents a share from a dollar a share. The current First Call consensus for 2002 is 76 cents a share.

Out of 25 analysts tracking Intel, none had a sell rating, and only one had a strong sell (or equivalent rating on the stock) this morning, according to Earnings.com.