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Commit To Purchase XPO Logistics At $15, Earn 8.8% Annualized

DividendChannel.com

07/02/13 - 11:31 AM EDT
Investors considering a purchase of XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO) shares, but cautious about paying the going market price of $18.31/share, might benefit from considering selling puts among the alternative strategies at their disposal. One interesting put contract in particular, is the February 2014 put at the $15 strike, which has a bid at the time of this writing of 85 cents. Collecting that bid as the premium represents a 5.7% return against the $15 commitment, or a 8.8% annualized rate of return (at Stock Options Channel we call this the YieldBoost).

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Selling a put does not give an investor access to XPO's upside potential the way owning shares would, because the put seller only ends up owning shares in the scenario where the contract is exercised. And the person on the other side of the contract would only benefit from exercising at the $15 strike if doing so produced a better outcome than selling at the going market price. ( Do options carry counterparty risk? This and six other common options myths debunked). So unless XPO Logistics, Inc. sees its shares fall 17.9% and the contract is exercised (resulting in a cost basis of $14.15 per share before broker commissions, subtracting the 85 cents from $15), the only upside to the put seller is from collecting that premium for the 8.8% annualized rate of return.

Below is a chart showing the trailing twelve month trading history for XPO Logistics, Inc., and highlighting in green where the $15 strike is located relative to that history:

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The chart above, and the stock's historical volatility, can be a helpful guide in combination with fundamental analysis to judge whether selling the February 2014 put at the $15 strike for the 8.8% annualized rate of return represents good reward for the risks. We calculate the trailing twelve month volatility for XPO Logistics, Inc. (considering the last 249 trading day closing values as well as today's price of $18.31) to be 38%. For other put options contract ideas at the various different available expirations, visit the XPO Stock Options page of StockOptionsChannel.com.


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