Wrong! Rear Echelon Revelations

Don't Jump the Gun

Jim Cramer

09/27/00 - 09:18 AM EDT
Wait till the good ones start reporting. Wait till the companies that control more of their destiny speak up. Let the companies tell you what's working. And don't jump the gun.

That's my simple piece of advice to those of you who are puzzled and confused by this current tape. Things will get better and clearer. We just need to see the bad news priced into the stocks better.

Let's go back to McDonald's(MCD Quote - Cramer on MCD - Stock Picks) as an example. McDonald's was one of the first to own up to the euro weakness, so it got spanked pretty hard. But a few weeks later, it is above where it got demoted to for a simple reason: We now know to expect that the euro hurt companies and we take currency hits less seriously than we take demand worries or execution risk.

A devil's advocate says, "Well, how about Colgate(CL Quote - Cramer on CL - Stock Picks)." But Colgate's crash was its own fault, a creature of its virtually totally positive stand articulated a week before it guided down. To me, the better, more affirming example, is Gillette(G Quote - Cramer on G - Stock Picks). Unlike Colgate, Gillette wasn't out there tooting its own horn, so when it revealed its euro problem, the hit was temporary. It is now above where it preannounced a shortfall, a real sign of strength.

I don't mean to go on and on about the euro, but I do want to show you that there will be a price, a beneficial price for you. We just don't have enough bad news priced into the whole market yet. Once we do, we can advance upward. But why jump the gun? Because somebody who was bullish now doesn't like it?

What the heck is there to like yet? We will all get our chances. The market gods don't like gun-jumpers any more than the judges like them in Sydney.

Random musings: San Franciscans, are you ready to rumble? At the RealMoney.com seminar tonight, I get to go up against one of my faves, Herb Greenberg, tonight, after I deliver my lecture on spotting tops. Greenberg's riding high with the scalps of Lernout and Cell Pathways. I want to hear him. And heck, I miss the guy from the TV show. He always cares with the same intensity I do. And Adam Lashinsky, he's dyn-o-mite and on fire of late, breaking stories about how bad things really are becoming in Silicon Valley. Can't beat it. See you tonight. Get away and get there.

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