Financial Advisor Update

Return to Article

The Green Shoots Turn Yellow

Doug Kass

I have consistently warned about the risks of as well as the emergence of a number of unprecedented and nontraditional, like the cost and burden of tighter regulation that threaten corporate profit growth over the next several years.

The emboldened animal spirits that have contributed to the remarkable rally off the March lows have turned sheepish over the last week in the face of economic reality and stretched valuations.

As I have observed recently -- and as Best Buy (BBY Quote) demonstrated in its earnings report yesterday -- the all important retail sector, for example, had a collective disappointment in May that featured progressive weakness during the month that has apparently continued into June.

I have long suggested that the intermediate-term outlook would be characterized by inconsistent and lumpy growth. At times it will appear that we are exiting the recession and then, soon thereafter, that we have re-entered recession -- difficult for investment managers (who are long-biased) and corporate managers (who have limited pricing power) to navigate.

We have not entered a "new investment dawn" -- as a still-shaky consumer provides a drag to domestic economic growth, the unsteady and uncertain transmission of credit, the reduced ability and/or higher cost of financing U.S. growth and the enlarged role of government in the private sector (among other factors) have all changed structurally for the worse from prior cycles.

It's different this time.