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Cubist Could Be in Play, Options Show

OptionMonster

Cubist Pharmaceuticals(CBST) is up more than 12% today with heavy options activity amid rumors the company will be bought by Swiss drug giant Novartis(NVS).

According to speculation, which is more specific than other rumors, Novartis will announce a deal Monday to purchase Cubist for $1.6 billion, or $26 a share. This one meets our "three-V" evaluation criteria of volume, volatility, and valuation:

Volume: More than 19,200 Cubist calls traded in the first 30 minutes of today's session, a ridiculously high number right out of the gate against only 118 puts. By comparison, normal full-session volume for March was just 700 Cubist calls per day, according to OptionMonster's real-time tracking systems.

Volatility: Implied volatility for Cubist has popped from a median of 57% to 115% in the April at-the-money strike.

Valuation: Cubist has been falling steadily since the beginning of the year, when its shares were trading at well over $25. The stock hit its 52-week low of $13.81 on March 5 but has been climbing since then.

The valuation makes us believe that Cubist could indeed be in play. Novartis, meanwhile, is down 2.3% to $37.45 in afternoon trading.