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Machinery Stocks Feel Pain of Weak Orders

Richard Widows

Even before the Commerce Department reported that machinery orders tumbled 26% in January from a year earlier, TheStreet.com Ratings' quantitative model graded capital-equipment companies as decidedly "risky."

Each of the firms in the accompanying table is marked in the "D" range -- on a scale from A-plus to E-minus -- for its respective "risk grade" from TheStreet.com Ratings.

Orders for capital goods shriveled 8.8% last month from December. Demand isn't likely to pick up soon, as U.S. industry is currently running at 72% of capacity, the weakest in 26 years.

The consensus among analysts is that net earnings per share for Eaton(ETN Quote) will fall 35.8% this year before recovering 15.1% next year. Its stock, which touched $100 in late 2007, declined sharply in the second half of last year, rose modestly toward year-end and then resumed its descent this year.

Illinois Tool Works'(ITW Quote) EPS is expected to slide 34.2% this year and resume earnings growth with a gain of 12.5% next year. Its stock price touched $60 in late 2007 before spinning downward to its current level of about half that value.

Analysts expect earnings at Parker Hannifin(PH Quote) to decline 28.1% this year and then slip an additional 8.8% next year. The firm's stock is down more than 50% from a high of more than $80 reached in 2008.

The fiscal years of Eaton and Illinois Tool end in December, while Parker Hannifin operates on a June cycle.

Although the three stocks in the table have marks in the "D" range for their respective "risk grades" from TheStreet.com Ratings, each still maintains an "overall grade" of C, which equates with a "hold" recommendation.

Dividend yields ranging from 2.67% for Parker-Hannifin to a shade under 5% for Eaton help boost the appeal of these mid-American industrial firms. (Eaton and Parker Hannifin are based in Cleveland, and Illinois Tool's headquarters is in the Chicago exurb of Glenview, Ill.)

Relatively modest forward price-to-earnings ratios -- less than 10, based on current-year estimated net for Eaton and Parker Hannifin -- also help maintain the "hold-recommended" status of the stocks.