Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap: Survival Guide
Scott Rutt
12/29/08 - 07:23 PM EST
Click here for an archive of Jim Cramer's Mad Money recaps.
Editor's note: This recap was last published on Nov. 25, 2008.
"It's OK to sell stocks in a down market," Jim Cramer told viewers
of his "Mad Money" TV show Monday.
"Just don't sell everything," he said, as he outlined his rules for surviving a tough market.
Cramer told viewers that they should never be afraid to sell
stocks when the market turns sour, but they need to use discipline,
and never panic into selling everything. Over the last few months,
he's been advocating that investors secure what money they may need in
the next five years.
Cramer said if investors are buying a house, paying for tuition,
or even buying a car over the next five years, it may be prudent to
secure that money now. Take the money out of stocks, he said, and
keep it in cash or equivalents so you can sleep comfortably at night.
But there's another reason to sell stocks, said Cramer, and that's
to have money to buy them back cheaper. "The worst markets make the
best buying opportunities," he said.
The chance to buy stocks at Dow
8,000 is a great opportunity that investors may never see again. Only
by selling stocks into strength will investors have the money they
need when the bargains reveal themselves.
For retirement savings, however, Cramer advised against selling.
Retirement, he said, is for the long term, and that money should stay
in stocks. "We go through bad spells," said Cramer, "it's happened
before and it will happen again."
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What to Keep
After telling viewers what they should sell in a down market,
Cramer then explained what investors should keep. He identified three
types of stocks that can be owned, even in the worst of market
conditions.
First are the recession-resistant stocks. He said
that any company that makes something you can eat, drink, smoke, wash
with or use to cure diseases can all be owned during a downturn.
Next are stocks with good fundamentals that trade at or near their cash. Cramer called these companies the obvious
choices, since the cash on the balance sheet provide a floor to prop
up the stock price.
Last are stocks that he's dubbed the "accidental
high-yielders," with traditionally low dividends that after
enormous declines in their stock price are now yielding over 4%.
Cramer said he trusts the high yielders because many of them are
industrial companies, like
Nucor (NUE Quote) and
Caterpillar (CAT Quote),
with long histories of paying dividends and little risk of that
dividend being cut. "The accidental high yielders are reliable," said
Cramer.
Cramer also stressed the importance of reinvesting those
dividends. He said while dividends may seem small, compounding over
time can make investors plenty.
In an awful market, said Cramer, the way to buy the high yielders
on a scale based on yield. He suggested buying a small position as a
stock yields 4%, then buying more as it yields 5% and even more if its
yield reaches 6%.
Buyer Beware
There's a dangerous word being tossed around the markets, said
Cramer, and that word is "cheap." He told viewers to beware of
anyone using the word cheap because cheap, he said, can get you killed.
Cramer said that it's natural to assume stocks are cheap after
the markets have fallen thousands of points in just weeks. But, he
asked, "Do we want to own stocks that look cheap, or stocks that can
go higher?" He said the worst reason to buy a stock during a
downturn is because of valuation.
Cramer said in a bear market, and especially in a panicked market,
the old equation of earnings times multiple equals price gets thrown
out the window. Why? Because in a bad economy, no one knows what the
earnings will be, he said. Without earnings, there can be no
multiple, and without a multiple there is only free fall.
Cramer said this premise is especially true for cyclical stocks.
These companies need a strong economy to make money, he explained. In
a downturn however, these same companies can turn from a profit to a
loss in the blink of an eye, all while the "estimates" are still way
too high, making them look cheap. Think Bethlehem Steel in the
1980's, said Cramer.
The bottom line, said Cramer, when investors seem to be selling
everything hand over fist, looks can be deceiving, and cheap can get
even cheaper.
The Power of Hedge Funds
Cramer said another tip for owning stocks in a downturn is to "know thy fellow shareholders." He said in nasty environment, who owns a stock is almost as important as the stock itself. "Your fellow shareholders," he said, "can become your worst enemy."
Cramer said that investors need to be suspicious of any stock being held by a lot of hedge funds. He explained that in down markets, when hedge funds start losing big money, the resulting redemptions force selling that not only pushes that stock lower, but can often push the entire market lower.
While just one big hedge fund has enough firepower to take a stock lower, imagine what can happen if a stock is owned several, said Cramer. Money managers, he said, tend to think alike, and if one fund begins selling, the chance of others following suit is almost a given.
Hedge funds have the ability to roll back tremendous multiyear gains in just months, said Cramer, which is why it's so important to know who owns your stocks along with you.
Calling a Bottom
Cramer's final tip for investing in tough markets was to avoid
calling a bottom. He said while it's always tempting to try and call a
bottom, unless you're absolutely sure, you'll get burned.
Cramer said in order for a true bottom, and not a trading bottom,
to occur a few things need to happen. And despite pundits of all
kinds coming on TV and saying there's a bottom, unless these things
actually happen, the bottom is not yet at hand.
First, said Cramer, things need to stop getting worse. "The bad
news can't be priced into a stock if the bad news is still happening,"
he said.
Second, the markets need to see wholesale
capitulation. Sentiment, he said, needs to be overwhelming negative.
"You don't bottom with a lot of bulls out there; you bottom when most
of the bulls are converted to bears," he said.
Cramer said a bottom will only come when there's no one left to
sell, when everyone who was buying finally gives up and starts
selling. That's when you get a genuine bottom, said Cramer, and not a
false bottom.
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