Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap: Nov. 17
Scott Rutt
11/17/08 - 08:18 PM EST
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"Am I too negative?" That's the question Jim Cramer asked rhetorically
on his "Mad Money" TV Show Monday. His reply: "No, I
don't think so."
Cramer said every time the
Dow Jones Industrial Average bounces off its lows of 8,200, he really wants to be a bull. But then, reality returns and he realizes the bad news is still getting worse, not better.
While the federal bailouts may have prevented everything in the
economy from completely falling apart, Cramer said they still haven't
addressed the real problem of home price deflation, nor have they
created a single new job.
And while falling gas prices may give
consumers much needed reprieve, Cramer said the dismal retail sales
numbers prove that the consumer is still not spending.
Cramer said the fact of the matter is things aren't really
improving. Home builders, he said, are still turning out new homes as
fast as they can.
And the fate of
General Motors (GM Quote)
still lingers over the economy like a huge black cloud.
Cramer said the only things that would change his mind on the
markets are interest rate cuts in China and Europe, or a resolution to
the GM crisis. Until then, he said, "there are just too many
negatives out there."
Green Stocks Fade
With the collapse in crude oil prices, Cramer took a hard look at
his basket of green stocks to see if his green thesis still holds up
in a cheap oil world.
The green basket included such stocks as
First Solar (FSLR Quote),
Foster Wheeler
(FWLT Quote),
Shaw Group (SGR Quote),
MEMC Technologies ,
BorgWarner (BWA Quote),
TetraTech (TTEK Quote),
OM Group (OMG Quote) and
Fuel-Tech (FTEK Quote).
Since Cramer first highlighted the green stocks on April 16, 2007, the stocks have enjoyed a 65% gain on average between then and
Nov. 6, 2008.
Since Nov. 6, however, as oil and natural gas prices
have plummeted, so have their green alternatives. The green basket is
now down 37% from April 2007 to today.
Cramer said his green thesis was an trading thesis and not a
investment thesis. Green stocks have fallen many many times before, he said, but never as quickly as in recent weeks.
Cramer recounted Jimmy Carter's plan in 1977 to make 20% of the
U.S. energy supply renewable energy by 2000. President Ronald Regan, though, dismantled much of the plan when oil prices fell in the 1980s.
Today, the U.S. relies on renewable energy for just 6% of its energy,
on par with that of 1977.
Cramer blamed today's fall in green stocks on lower oil
prices, as well as forced selling by ailing hedge fund
investors.
He said that with President-elect Barrack Obama clearly in the
ethanol camp, he sees little chance for a resurgence for the natural
gas alternative or in any of the wind or solar plays anytime soon.
Lukewarm on Anadarko
Cramer talked with Jim Hackett, chairman and CEO of
Anadarko Petroleum
(APC Quote), to get his take on state of his company, and the natural gas
industry, given the sharp decline in oil and natural gas prices.
Hackett said while the combination of weakening demand for gas
along with big successes in onshore drilling have driven natural gas
futures significantly lower, the price of gas today is not as low as
he thought it might go. He said he still sees natural gas as the fuel
for the future and one that's right for the economy and for the
environment.
Hackett said Anadarko has largely protected itself from the
downturn by hedging 95% of its production for 2008 and 2009 and 70% of its production for 2010. He said the acquisitions made by the company in 2007
are still economically viable, even at prices lower than that of today.
When asked about the current state of natural gas stocks, Hackett
said he sees the market as now being oversold. He predicted the
stocks will trade ahead of the coming recovery and represent a great
value to shareholders.
Toward that end, Anadarko remains committed to its
stock repurchase program, said Hackett, adding his preference for buybacks
over increased dividends.
Cramer agreed with Hackett's assessment. He said Anadarko's
stock does represent a lot of value, but he fell short of offering his
full endorsement.
Outrage of the Day
Cramer took issue with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Instead of going after those responsible for trillions of dollars in bank and investment losses, it took aim today at celebrity investor Mark Cuban for insider trading.
Cramer said if found guilty, Cuban deserves punishment, but called the move by the SEC an amusing sideshow among unprecedented other issues.
Lightning Round
Cramer was bullish on
Weyerhaeuser
(WY Quote),
Nordic American
Tanker (NAT Quote),
Duke
Energy (DUK Quote),
Molson Coors (TAP Quote),
Campbell Soup (CPB Quote)
and
General Mills .
He was bearish on
Aetna ,
Merrill Lynch
(MER Quote),
Frontline
(FRO Quote),
Chicago Bridge &
Iron (CBI Quote),
Ameren
Corp (AEE Quote) and
ConAgra Foods
(CAG Quote).
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