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Cramer: I Was Too Bullish

Jim Cramer

In the end, I was too bullish. I didn't think things would get so bad that they would sell what they could sell because they couldn't sell anything else. And that's what happened to the soft-goods components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

If you remember my Dow 8400 crash scenario last month I put drastic but realistic price tags on a host of companies - including zero for General Motors(GM Quote) (prescient, I guess). But I did not think that Johnson & Johnson(JNJ Quote), Coca-Cola(KO Quote), Procter & Gamble(PG Quote), and Kraft Goods (KFT Quote) could be so easily annihilated.

My bad.

I am working on some new downside targets, but it is obvious now that we could be taking that soft-good fortress to levels that look ridiculously cheap, and will probably be ridiculously cheap, at the end of this crash.

Unlike the others, though, they are self-financing and in the end this is a selloff rooted in anything that needs financing, and if it doesn't, it just might stop down 10% from here.

Here's the reprise of the piece:

Let's run through the Dow 30:

1. Caterpillar(CAT Quote) can retreat back to $43 where it started both before the housing boom and before the energy boom and before BRIC became a dominant force. All of its markets will be challenged with housing downturns worldwide and energy prices retreating from highs, something that I think will happen as economies slow.

2. Citigroup(C Quote) -- $14. This is where it traded before the short-selling rules were created on July 15, and this is where it is going without a financing and a big investment. It might not stop there if there is no relief at all. I am really bearish on this stock without a plan.

3. Du Pont(DD Quote) has a lot of businesses that are less cyclical than people think and a safe dividend. I would be surprised if it went much below $40, where I would like to buy it.

4. American Express(AXP Quote) has turned into a terrible lender with a product that is viewed as something that is no longer indispensable, courtesy great marketing by Mastercard(MA Quote) and Visa(V Quote). This stock's headed to $31, maybe lower, as it is really a weak sister in the Dow now.

5. Disney(DIS Quote) traded at $25 when people thought there was nothing to it other than a declining advertising business and an expensive group of theme parks. This is a company I will buy for Action Alerts PLUS if it hits that downside target.

6. United Technologies(UTX Quote) is a BRIC derivative for certain with too much aerospace and a defense business that could be hurt by an Obama election. Knock it back to $51, which would be a repeal of the whole BRIC move.

7. Coca-Cola (KO Quote) talked recently about how it is not immune from a retail sales slowdown; when it did, the stock retreated to about $48, where it would surely be headed again.

8. 3M(MMM Quote) is a play on worldwide growth in a number of industrial areas, and worldwide growth is on the decline beyond what this fine firm is ready for. It could have a huge decline in earnings, and I am putting it at $50.

9. General Motors(GM Quote), without a plan and without a handle on Delphi and on the right kind of cars, will burn through the bailout money quickly and disappears. Yes, it goes bankrupt. Stocks don't get down to where they are like this one if something hasn't become out of control. This one's out of control.

10. General Electric(GE Quote) -- I think it could trade down to $20. The decision to end the buyback, which was just wasting a gigantic amount of money, is now behind them, so all it would have to contend with is lower earnings and a less turbo-charged report.

11. McDonald's(MCD Quote): This one's going to suffer for pennies by a stronger dollar, but not much more, and it just boosted the dividend. I think it would be a gift below $57.

12. Home Depot (HD Quote) retreats to where it was on that July 15 low, $21, where it finds buyers for that dividend.

13. Bank of America(BAC Quote): With the plan, this is the biggest winner in the Dow. Without the plan? Sorry, it revisits the low of July 15 as it has to get rid of these bad mortgages it is stocked with. Target is $18.

14. Chevron(CVX Quote): This is a slow-growth company with decent oil assets that would quickly go down to where its dividend made it compelling. Call it $54 as in a falling-oil environment -- perhaps down to $70. You will see price/earnings shrinkage continuing.

15. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ Quote): This company's acquisition of EDS is going to work and help numbers for years, but the stock will still have to revisit at least its recent lows on fears of a worldwide tech slowdown; call it $41.

16. JPMorgan (JPM Quote): This company keeps doing everything right, but the plan would make this the best bank on earth other than Bank of America. Without the plan, it goes to its July 15 low of $31.

17. Pfizer (PFE Quote): Here's a company that can only make more money by firing people, which is a good strategy until you run out of people. Still, the dividend is safe for at least another two years, so I think the stock stays at $18.

18. Kraft (KFT Quote): A food company that is getting better run is nothing to rave about, but this new addition to the Dow sure beats the disastrous run AIG (AIG Quote) has had. I think it can drop a couple to $30 but not go much below that because it is so defensive.

19. Alcoa (AA Quote) is a great mystery. During the great 21st-century commodity boom that say Phelps Dodge and Alcan disappear, this homely little aluminum company has done nothing! Now it is free to go to $19, as the boom is totally over.

20. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ Quote) is a super stock. Well managed, great earnings, good pipeline, I think it goes up a couple from here.

21. Boeing (BA Quote): Here's one that could get cut in half if the strike doesn't settle and the airlines around the world contract. It could go as low as $24. It's one of the most vulnerable stocks in the Dow because of its clients' stress and voracious need for hard-to-get capital.

22. Intel (INTC Quote) retreats back to where it was during the last tech recession -- $13. Think of it this way: It bought back a lot of stock. That money was wasted.

23. AT&T (T Quote) faces landline challenges and corporate weakness. In a disaster scenario, it could lose a third of its value. Call it $21. I only say that because look at what the competition, outfits like Qwest (Q Quote) and Winstar are selling for with slackened to no growth. Bad geographies. At the bottom, there will be a lot of fretting about the dividend.

24. Verizon (VZ Quote) needs more phone lines, more frivolous texters and photo-senders and a heck of a lot of clients for FiOS. None is likely to happen in this environment. I could see the stock retreat back to $26. It didn't help that they bought Alltel ... for now. Same dividend worries as above.

25. Microsoft (MSFT Quote) is like Intel. Bought back a lot of stock. Nothing to show for it, and it now goes to $21.

26. Wal-Mart (WMT Quote) either stays the same or goes up, because that's where everyone will shop -- they'll all be trading down in retail.

27. Merck (MRK Quote) is pretty much where it is going to go. It's a challenged company with safe yield. $31.

28. IBM (IBM Quote) could be facing a huge headwind of global recession, and I think that its business is far more economically sensitive than people realize. It could lose as much as 50 points -- it used to be that low for a long time -- sending it to $60. This and Boeing are probably the two most severe cuts, and the ones I am most likely going to be too pessimistic about if things get a little better.

29. Procter (PG Quote) stays at $68 or goes a little lower, not much. The company is set up to win in this environment.

30. Exxon (XOM Quote): If you repeal the whole oil boom, which is what will happen in a worldwide recession or worse, Exxon's failed buyback strategy will be revealed for what it was: a giant money pit. The stock could retreat to $57, as it has minimal dividend support.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long GE, Wal-Mart, Procter & Gamble, Chevron, JPMorgan, Johnson & Johnson, Kraft, and Hewlett-Packard.