Market Features

Return to Article

U.S. Playing Poker with Russia

John Fout

The relationship between the U.S. and Russia has deteriorated dramatically in recent years, highlighted by the armed conflict in Georgia. The U.S. has played poker with Russia, including its latest decision Wednesday to sign an agreement to place Patriot missiles in Poland despite loud Russian protests. What happens if Russia calls the U.S.'s bluff?

According to an op-ed by former Russian leader Mikhail Gorbachev, the West has to answer for its aggressive actions. Gorbachev wrote: "What is clear is that Western assistance in training Georgian troops and shipping large supplies of arms had been pushing the region toward war rather than peace."

The Bush administration befriended Georgia President Mikheil Saakashvili by supporting his so-called democratic reforms with economic aid, and arms and training for Georgian troops. The U.S. also hinted at pushing for Georgia to become a member of NATO. (Adding Georgia and Ukraine to NATO was discussed at a group meeting as recently as Tuesday). Perhaps these assurances led Saakashvili to attack the break-away regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Even if NATO agreed to add these two former members of the Soviet Union, the security agreement would be meaningless. Stratfor, a leading publisher of online geopolitical intelligence, wrote in a report:

"It is very doubtful that Western Europe has the will to develop a force capable of defending Georgia and Ukraine. Eastern Europe might have the will but not the resources, from manpower to technology. Thus, membership in NATO for Ukraine and Georgia would be a gesture without content. We are reminded of French and British guarantees to Poland in 1939."

Russia proved that U.S. talk regarding Georgia was cheap. The U.S. found itself in no position to come to Georgia's defense, while Russia cut through the country like a hot knife would to butter in a matter of hours. The Bush administration last week called for Russia to leave Georgia immediately. But the AP reported as recently as Thursday that not only aren't the Russians leaving, but they have also blockaded Georgia's main port city.

The question, therefore, is whether Russia will do the same in Poland? The AP reported a Russian general made threats of attacking Poland - possibly with nuclear weapons - if they signed the agreement. And after the agreement was signed, Russia informed NATO it was suspending cooperation agreements with the Cold War era organization.

It's not clear the average American understands what has happened in the region. Gorbachev in his op-ed piece took issue with the U.S. media's portrayal of the conflict, saying, "Russia had not wanted a crisis." He charges the media with a classic tail wagging-the-dog strategy. Georgia was the aggressor in the conflict, although it's not clear whether the West had knowledge of Georgia's intent.

Some U.S. foreign policy experts have criticized U.S. policy toward Russia. Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett wrote an article for the National Interest , Wrong on Russia "that media has it all wrong calling Russia the aggressor, when in fact it was the U.S.

"In the post-Cold War period, it was Washington, not Moscow, which started the game of acting outside the United Nations Security Council to pursue coercive regime change in problem states and redraw the borders of nominally sovereign countries. In Russian eyes, America's invasion and occupation of Iraq, including arresting and presiding over the execution of its deposed President, undermined Washington's standing to criticize others for taking military action in response to perceived threats. And American unilateralism in the Balkans, along with planned deployments of missile defense systems in Eastern Europe and support for 'color revolutions' in former Soviet republics, trampled clearly stated Russian redlines."

And pointing out the obvious, the Leveretts say Russia has responded in kind with a threat.

The Leveretts and Gorbachev suggest the U.S. needs to rethink relations with Russia. First, the U.S. needs continued Russian cooperation in the war on terror. Second, Russia remains the largest producer of energy on the planet. And any interruption to the supply of oil could send shivers through energy markets; higher oil prices Thursday were attributed to rising Russian tensions.

What will the U.S. do: Will it continue to aggravate Russia or make a diplomatic effort to ease tensions?

The analysts at Stratfor write that Russia might envision attacking Poland as the winning play:

It is a risk Moscow might take. First, the Russians know the German and Polish military capacity - and the limits of available American power. Second, the failure to defend a member would destroy NATO's credibility and shred the alliance.