Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap for July 28
Scott Rutt
07/28/08 - 07:53 PM EDT
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" There is no relief in sight," Jim Cramer told viewers on his "Mad Money" TV show after Monday's 239-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
He once again blamed financial stocks for weighing down the markets.
But Cramer noted some positive things that occurred in the market, mainly the Federal Communication Commission's approval of the merger between
Sirius Satellite (SIRI Quote) and
XM Satellite (XMSR Quote), which took an unprecedented 18 months to accomplish. He then pondered why the stocks of both companies were down on the news.
On the surface, the combined Sirius/XM should have lower subscriber acquisition costs and lower content costs, and the merger should also take bankruptcy off the table. But Cramer warned that it will still be difficult for the company to make money with three-quarters of its new subscribers coming from the now declining auto market.
Cramer called the stock of Sirius nothing more a $2 lottery ticket, saying that the delay in approval of the merger has cost both companies dearly.
Sirius lost $327 million in 2007, while XM lost an additional $341, taking the combined debt of the companies to $3 billion. With this much debt, Cramer said it's the bond holders, not the stock holders, who are in control.
Cramer said that as long as the company is not turning a profit, the common stock of the combined entity will continue to struggle. He strongly warned against the common stock and instead recommended going after the $550 million worth of senior sub-ordinate notes being offered by XM.
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Cramer said these convertible notes will yield 6% to 6.5% and offer the possibility of exchanging them into common shares in the event they do well. "You get all of the upside with none of the downside for six years," he said.
"The FCC has reduced the common stock to almost nothing," said Cramer, adding the way to play the merger is with XM's new bond.
Happier Days Ahead
"Happier days could be here again with the price of gasoline continuing to fall," Cramer told viewers. He reiterated his price target of $3.50 a gallon for gasoline and said that the stock of
United Parcel Service (UPS Quote) is one way to play cheaper gas.
Cramer has been bearish on UPS since October 2006, when he recommended selling the stock at $76.05 a share. Since then, shares have fallen 19%, and Cramer now says the stock is ready for a comeback. "It's time to become a United Parcel bull," he said.
Cramer said when the company reported last Tuesday and cut guidance from $3.90 a share to $4.20 a share to $3.50 a share to $3.70 a share, the stock rebounded 4.4%, signaling the arrival of the bottom.
The stock has already been through the meat grinder, said Cramer, noting that Wall Street was clearly expecting even worse numbers from the company.
Cramer is not predicting an increase in shipping volumes, but instead said he likes UPS simply because of the decline in gas prices. With fuel costs up 67%, UPS has much to gain from lower gas prices, Cramer said.
The company's outlook sees oil at $149 a barrel, so any decrease in that number goes straight to the bottom line, he said.
In addition UPS has put in place a hiring freeze further lowering costs and has negotiated a new contract with its union to save an estimated $640 million over five years. Cramer said he also likes the company's 2.9% dividend yield and its history of aggressive stock buybacks.
Cramer said in difficult times, he looks for smart companies, and one of the smartest he sees right now is UPS.
No Stock Left Behind
"No stock should be the target of naked shorting," Cramer asserted.
He called the practice of shorting a stock without having to first borrow the shares just immoral. He told viewers that while the practice is already illegal, the SEC has systematically failed to enforce the rule.
Tomorrow is a landmark day, as the SEC reconsiders its emergency rule that protects selected financial shocks from the practice of naked shorting, he said.
Cramer warned that without the emergency protection, the financial stocks will go much lower, as hedge funds and others once again pummel the stocks. He called into question the character of such hedge fund managers, who employ such company-destroying tactics to make a quick buck for their funds.
Cramer advocated for not only the rule to remain in effect, but for the protection to extend to all stocks. "No one should be allowed to destroy a company," he said.
He noted such hard-hit stocks as
Washington Mutual (WM Quote),
AIG (AIG Quote) and
National City (NCC Quote) were left off the initial emergency protection list.
Mad Mail
In this segment, Cramer told a viewer that
Harley Davidson (HOG Quote) has great management and that the company is doing everything right, and eventually it'll be a buy.
He told a second viewer that he wanted to see another quarter from
E*Trade (ETFC Quote) before making a recommendation.
When a third viewer asked about
AIG (AIG Quote), Cramer said he only sees value in that name below $20 a share.
Sudden Death
Cramer was bullish on
Costco (COST Quote).
He was bearish on
Baidu.com (BIDU Quote).
Lightning Round
Cramer was bullish on
PharMerica (PMC Quote),
Thompson Creek Metal (TC Quote),
Verizon (VZ Quote),
Potash (POT Quote)
and
Donaldson Company (DCI Quote).
Cramer was bearish on
Time Warner (TWX Quote)
and
Mechel Steel (MTL Quote).
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clicking here.
For more of Cramer's insights during the Lightning Round, click here.