Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap for July 22
TheStreet.com Staff
07/22/08 - 08:03 PM EDT
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Despite poor earnings reports, the drop in oil prices is driving the market higher, Jim Cramer told viewers of his "Mad Money" TV show Tuesday.
Oil is all that matters right now and the price of oil is on the decline, he said.
After companies such as
Apple(AAPL Quote),
Texas Instruments(TXN Quote),
SanDisk(SNDK Quote)and
American Express(AXP Quote) disappointed with their earnings report Monday, everybody was expecting the market to "get crushed" Tuesday, he said.
"People were crying. Nearly everyone thought there would be some serious blood on the Street today," he said. "That didn't happen, the sky didn't' fall."
Instead the Dow surged with triple-digit gains Tuesday. No one knows why the market pulled through, except me, said Cramer.
The market was up because of the decline in price of oil and gas, he said.
"Oil and gas have come down hard," said Cramer. "Oil is down to $128 a barrel and I think it is going to $120."
The last time oil was at $126 a barrel, the S&P 500, which represents the broadest view of the market, was at 1,403. That's about 10% higher than the index is now. When natural gas was $9, the same index was 3.5% higher.
That means on an average, the S&P 500 is 6.7% lower and will head higher, said Cramer.
"The arithmetic of oil and gas and the decline in oil and gas are irrefutable," he said. "We are 6.5% too low (in the S&P) as of this evening and market is heading up there."
Cramer: JP Morgan Can Save Banks |
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Consumer companies such as
Kimberly-Clark(KMB Quote) are likely to benefit, he said, since that is exactly the kind of defensive play that big institutional investors like to put their money into.
Cramer said he is predicting gasoline at $3.50 a gallon if oil prices fall to $120 a barrel.
"I need you to stop reacting to only the earnings and look at the bigger picture: the prices of oil and gas and the newfound health of banks," he said. "This market's a buy."
Natural gas prices are likely to go lower. That means
Chesapeake Energy(CHK Quote) is a bargain at $51, which is where the stock closed Tuesday, said Cramer.
"I like to buy when I can, not when I have to," said Cramer.
Cramer also warned retail investors against trading during after-hours. "No trading after hours," he said. "Everyone loses money."
Poised for a Turnaround
Campbell Soup(CPB Quote) is chicken soup for your portfolio, said Cramer.
In the past, the stock has been a serial underperformer. The company missed four straight quarters before finally pre-announcing some good news recently but everybody ignored it, he said.
Campbell has been a really poor investment over last 10 years, having fallen almost 35% from $54.90 to $34.30 currently.
But now the company is looking better, he said, and is a possible recession-proof play.
General Mills(GIS Quote) and
Kellogg(K Quote) are at or near their 52-week highs, which means Campbell looks cheap and institutional money could flood to the stock and raise its price, he said.
"While I have liked many a food stock, especially
Heinz(HNZ Quote), I have trashed Campbell," said Cramer. "Now I am changing my mind and tune and getting behind it."
Campbell has launched new products such as its range of Select Harvest light soups, which could be give its rival Progresso tough competition.
The company is making record high investments in marketing and expanding into international markets such as China and Russia. "It may finally get its groove back," he said.
Campbell also has a big buyback going on with plans to repurchase $1.2 billion worth of its shares, or 9.2% of its market cap. "I like big buybacks and you can't get any bigger than Campbell's, he said.
A weak dollar also means that a European buyer could in and buy the company for almost 25% less than where it was two years ago, said Cramer. "A name brand like Campbell hasn't been this cheap in years," he said.
Cramer also advised a listener to sell
Kraft(KFT Quote) and recommended
Tyson Foods(TSN Quote).
Stupid Thinking
Not all financial services stocks need to go down because of
American Express'(AXP Quote) "simply miserable quarter," said Cramer.
American Express was down nearly 7% following its earnings and it affected other banking stocks.
Bank of America(BAC Quote) and
JP Morgan(JPM Quote) all stayed down Tuesday.
But there is no reason to believe that bad news at American Express is bad news for JP Morgan, said Cramer. "That's kind of stupid thinking," he said. "Don't panic because of traders who can't see the difference between American Express and JP Morgan," he said.
The difference between American Express and banks is that the former makes money from transaction fees, membership fees and interest on loans.
For banks such as JP Morgan and
Wachovia(WB Quote), deposits are the key.
If anything, American Express has more in common with retailer
Target(TGT Quote). Target has a big credit card business, but it also has a retail component to fall back on, which is not the case with American Express.
That why Cramer prefers Target. "American Express has unfairly brought down all banks. Use it as an opportunity to buy," he said.
Cramer suggested Wachovia, Bank of America,
US Bancorp(USB Quote) and JP Morgan as his four strong financial plays.
Mad Mail
In this segment, Cramer said he has lost a lot of money on
Annaly Capital Management(NLY Quote) and would not recommend it. It has too much leverage and he cannot go back to the stock after the money he has lost on it, said Cramer.
Cramer also explained the term, "multiplier," when it comes to assessing a stock's value. It refers to the price-to-earnings multiple.
Some stocks have a big multiple because they grow fast, he said. Stocks such as
Exxon Mobil(XOM Quote) and
ConocoPhillips(COP Quote) have a low multiplier because people expect lower growth in oil consumption.
Finally, Cramer suggested listeners look at
Google(GOOG Quote) as an attractive trade, in light of
Yahoo's(YHOO Quote) weak earnings. And instead of Wachovia, consider US Bancorp for their trade.
Lightning Round
Cramer was bullish on
Disney(DIS Quote),
Staples(SPLS Quote) and
True Religion(TRLG Quote).
He recommended selling
United Airlines(UAL Quote),
Veolia Environment(VE Quote),
Peabody Energy(BTU Quote),
Acco Brands(ABD Quote),
Office Depot(ODP Quote) and
Colonial Bancgroup(CNB Quote).
Want more Cramer? Check out Jim's rules and commandments for investing by
clicking here.
For more of Cramer's insights during the Lightning Round, click here.