Stock-Picking Training Program
26 Stock Tips From the U.S. Government
Bill Trent
03/20/08 - 01:15 PM EDT
This column was originally published on RealMoney
on Mar. 19, 2008 at 1:00 p.m. EDT. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com
readers. For more information about subscribing to RealMoney,
please click here.
Government economic reports can do more than just indicate the state of the economy. Since many of the reports include industry-level data, digging deeper in the reports can help investors find specific industries to consider more closely.
For example, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which prepares the PPI report, provides detailed information on an industry basis. The problem is figuring out how to find it on their Web site. Starting at the
PPI homepage, I scroll down to the headline that says "Get Detailed PPI Statistics," then click on "
industry data."
You can then pick out which industries you want to see (I pick them all) and click "retrieve data." I then select "more formatting options," and click on the boxes for 12-month percent change, all years, and include graphs. Once I hit "retrieve data" again, I have what I'm looking for: graphs that make it easy to tell which industries are gaining or losing their pricing power.
Since I wrote about the PPI data
in September, the pricing power has shifted to some different industries. Therefore, I thought an update would be in order.
As I pointed out last month, year-over-year price increases for petroleum refineries have suddenly shot straight up. In January, the gain was 48.8%, and in February it was 42.8%.
I still like Frontier (FTO Quote - Cramer on FTO - Stock Picks), but the news is also positive for:
Valero (VLO Quote - Cramer on VLO - Stock Picks)
Sunoco (SUN Quote - Cramer on SUN - Stock Picks)
Tesoro (TSO Quote - Cramer on TSO - Stock Picks)
Western Refining (WNR Quote - Cramer on WNR - Stock Picks)
Holly (HOC Quote - Cramer on HOC - Stock Picks)
Delek (DK Quote - Cramer on DK - Stock Picks)
CVR Energy (CVI Quote - Cramer on CVI - Stock Picks)
Be warned, however, that the
crack spreads are acting funny these days.
Prices for industrial gases surged 15.5% in January and 10.3% in February. Some of the leading companies in this space are
Praxair (PX Quote - Cramer on PX - Stock Picks),
Air Products (APD Quote - Cramer on APD - Stock Picks) and
Airgas (ARG Quote - Cramer on ARG - Stock Picks).
Shifting gears a bit, let's look at electronic computer manufacturing. Pricing power is about as bad as it can get for these guys, with the 20.1% decline in February being comparable to prior cyclical troughs.
Depending on your point of view, this could either be a bearish signal or a contrary bullish one. Either way, the companies most affected are obviously
Dell (DELL Quote - Cramer on DELL - Stock Picks),
Apple (AAPL Quote - Cramer on AAPL - Stock Picks) and
Hewlett Packard (HPQ Quote - Cramer on HPQ - Stock Picks).
Ever wonder why Robert Marcin
is so bullish on hard-drive makers? They are one of the industries that had pricing power back in September and have managed to maintain it. The 2.1% year-over-year decline is the best on record.
Of course, there's a contrarian way to play that as well. Names include:
Brocade (BRCD Quote - Cramer on BRCD - Stock Picks)
EMC (EMC Quote - Cramer on EMC - Stock Picks)
Iomega (IOM Quote - Cramer on IOM - Stock Picks)
Hutchinson (HTCH Quote - Cramer on HTCH - Stock Picks)
Quantum (QTM Quote - Cramer on QTM - Stock Picks)
SanDisk (SNDK Quote - Cramer on SNDK - Stock Picks)
Seagate (STX Quote - Cramer on STX - Stock Picks)
Western Digital (WDC Quote - Cramer on WDC - Stock Picks)
Finally, after grinding to a halt, line-haul railroads have picked up steam. This is good for Warren Buffett,
Burlington Northern (BNI Quote - Cramer on BNI - Stock Picks),
CSX (CSX Quote - Cramer on CSX - Stock Picks),
Union Pacific (UNP Quote - Cramer on UNP - Stock Picks) and
Norfolk Southern (NSC Quote - Cramer on NSC - Stock Picks).
So there you have it. Twenty-six stock tips from the U.S. Government. As with any stock tip, this is a starting place for further research. But it is a starting place that I have frequently found to be a useful one.
This column was originally published on RealMoney
. For more information about subscribing to RealMoney,
please click here.