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Weekend Reading: Comparing Recessions

Paul Kedrosky

02/10/08 - 02:56 PM EST

Welcome to another edition of Weekend Reading. First, we'll look back at the week that just finished, then we'll look forward to the week ahead. Last, I'll present you with some articles worth reading.

It was another crummy week for the major markets. The Dow ended the week down 4.4%, while the S&P 500 lost 4.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 4.5%. The main culprit was the general consensus that we're now in a recession, plus a growing sense that some sectors -- especially insurance, credit cards, and retail -- are seeing a new round of slowing.

Looking forward to next week, it seems reasonable that we'll find our way to lower levels yet. Blame China. That country's wild stock markets were closed all of last week, and they have some catching up to do, which should happen by midweek. It's hard to imagine how that selling won't find its way into North American equities. Furthermore, there's a plethora of stories in the popular press this weekend saying consumers are cutting spending and generally feel like a recession is already here.

Turning to economic indicators, there are a few worth watching. We will see data on January retail sales Wednesday, January industrial production Friday, weekly jobless claims Thursday, plus preliminary February consumer sentiment Friday. Also, on Thursday Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke plans to testify on the economy before the Senate Banking Committee.

As for earnings, quite a few noteworthy companies are reporting, including Schering-Plough(SGP - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr), Applied Materials(AMAT - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr), Coca-Cola Enterprises(CCE - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr) and General Motors(GM - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr). The key thing to look for will be these companies' outlooks. Investors want to see where we are in the recession cycle: still descending, at the bottom or coming out.

Finally, here are some articles and papers worth reading:

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