Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap: A Game Plan for the Recovery
TheStreet.com Staff
02/08/08 - 07:47 PM EST
Click here for an archive of Cramer's "Mad Money" recaps.
To get a better understanding of the recovery of the economy, you just need to know the letters L, U and V, Jim Cramer told viewers of his "Mad Money" TV show Friday.
Cramer sees three distinct scenarios for the recovery. The first scenario is what he calls the "V" recovery in which the economy snaps back to previous levels as a result of the
Federal Reserve's string of rate cuts.
Investors following this scenario are buying the financials, homebuilders and even the mortgage insurers on expectations of getting an immediate bounce.
The "L" recovery is at the other end of the spectrum. In this scenario, the economy will bottom, but never really take a significant turn upwards.
Stabilization is the key in this scenario. These investors, he noted, buy safe stocks such as
McDonald's (MCD Quote - Cramer on MCD - Stock Picks), which he also owns for his
Action Alerts PLUS portfolio,
Verizon (VZ Quote - Cramer on VZ - Stock Picks) and
United Technologies (UTX Quote - Cramer on UTX - Stock Picks).
In between these two extremes is a "U" recovery. Cramer described this scenario as a slow but ultimately successful recovery that could take as long a year to complete.
"U" investors cautiously buy stocks such as retailers and do so slowly on weakness.
In Cramer's view, believers in the "V" recovery are too aggressive and view the world "through rose-colored glasses." At the other end, believers in the "L" recovery are not bullish enough.
Cramer said he believes in the "U" recovery and would buy such retailers as
Kohl's (KSS Quote - Cramer on KSS - Stock Picks),
J.C. Penney (JCP Quote - Cramer on JCP - Stock Picks),
Jones Apparel (JNY Quote - Cramer on JNY - Stock Picks) and
Lowes (LOW Quote - Cramer on LOW - Stock Picks).
Cashing In On Brazil's Housing Boom
In the last segment of his week-long series on Brazilian stocks, Cramer told viewers to take a look at
Gafisa (GFA Quote - Cramer on GFA - Stock Picks), the country's No. 2 homebuilder. He said Gafisa is on fire this year, with earnings expected to grow 203% and revenue by 53%.
Cramer said Gafisa's growth has been sparked by a recent change in the country's housing laws that allows banks to repossess defaulting properties in a fraction of the time previously allowed. The result: Brazilian banks have stepped up their lending activity now that the risk-reward equation has swung in their favor.
Brazil has seen an 80% growth in the number of mortgages, and Cramer said Gafisa is going along for the ride.
The company is one of the few homebuilders that is actually growing and is raising home prices. Gafisa trades at just 7.2 times estimated 2008 earnings and Cramer said even if the stock quintupled in price, "It would still be a steal."
Grading the Pitches
Cramer said he did some homework on the four stocks pitched to him by the student-run investment club, Smart Women Securities (SWS), during "Ladies Night" two weeks ago. Here's how he sees them.
First up:
Flowers Foods (FLO Quote - Cramer on FLO - Stock Picks). Cramer said that while Flowers might have looked good two weeks ago, it's a sell due to rising raw costs. The company trades at 22 times its earnings, but is only growing at 10%, and that makes it too expensive in Cramer's book.
Cramer put
PharMerica (PMC Quote - Cramer on PMC - Stock Picks) in the "don't buy" camp. This company is too new and unseasoned to invest in, he said, adding he saw no compelling reason to take on the extra risk.
Cramer didn't think
Clorox (CLX Quote - Cramer on CLX - Stock Picks) was a good choice. He noted the company's rising raw costs, recent downgrade and lowered guidance. Instead he recommended
PepsiCo (PEP Quote - Cramer on PEP - Stock Picks) as an alternative play.
Cramer sees
EnerNoc (ENOC Quote - Cramer on ENOC - Stock Picks) as a speculative energy conservation play. Cramer said this one is a buy, adding the company's energy conservation efforts are perfect suited for the upcoming election cycle.
Profiting on Cell Phone Upgrades
Cramer welcomed David Aldrich, President and CEO of
Skyworks Solutions (SWKS Quote - Cramer on SWKS - Stock Picks) to the show for an update on the company's business.
Aldrich said the company's business continues to be strong. The cell phone industry, he said, is in the middle of an upgrade cycle, with older voice-only phones being replaced by smartphones that provide GPS, Internet and other services.
In addition, he said, Skyworks is now a sizeable supplier to all of the major cell phone manufacturers including
Apple (AAPL Quote - Cramer on AAPL - Stock Picks) and
Research In Motion (RIMM Quote - Cramer on RIMM - Stock Picks).
Calling Skyworks a great story, Cramer said he continues to be behind the company.
Lightning Round
Cramer was bullish on
Schering-Plough (SGP Quote - Cramer on SGP - Stock Picks),
Mastercard (MA Quote - Cramer on MA - Stock Picks),
Wellpoint (WLP Quote - Cramer on WLP - Stock Picks),
ConocoPhillips (COP Quote - Cramer on COP - Stock Picks),
Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI Quote - Cramer on SIRI - Stock Picks)
and
Urban Outfitters (URBN Quote - Cramer on URBN - Stock Picks).
Cramer was bearish on
Whole Foods (WFMI Quote - Cramer on WFMI - Stock Picks),
Wellcare Health Plans (WCG Quote - Cramer on WCG - Stock Picks)
and
SAVVIS Inc (SVVS Quote - Cramer on SVVS - Stock Picks).
Want more Cramer? Check out Jim's rules and commandments for investing by
clicking here.
For more of Cramer's insights during the Lightning Round, click here.