Active Trader Update
Cramer: How You'll Know the Selling's Stopped
Jim Cramer
02/27/07 - 01:43 PM EST
This column was originally published on RealMoney on Feb. 27 at 7:36 a.m. EST. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers. For more information about subscribing to RealMoney, please click here.
At least we won't get crushed by an up opening that will lead to disappointment. We will get hammered from the get-go. We have all of the usual suspects: the subprime morass, which is perennially supposed to be spreading to every banker and broker; the housing chaos; and now China in the mix. When China slows, the whole mineral complex collapses, despite the earnings. The mineral complex has been red-hot, but that's all China, so you can expect a pulverizing today there. So maybe, just maybe, after four down days, we will at last catch some sort of a washout. With financials bad, minerals bad, and tech just sagging here, you could see us mimic the European markets with a down percent-plus day. Oh, and it's painful. I own NYSE Group (NYX) stock, which has gone from hero to villain overnight, and people are still dumping on it. I thought Ceradyne (CRDN) was a good quarter -- no, it was a good quarter -- but the bulls keep morphing to bears, so another bid downgrade is coming. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) is now under $40, which seems incredible to me because that quarter does not merit an 8% pullback. But it is what it is. The selloffs been mild so far, and we need to scare people, and today's action will be rough. How will we know when things are all clear? I would watch for the Procter & Gamble (PG)/Anheuser-Busch (BUD)/Lilly (LLY)/Abbott (ABT) complex. I think safety stabilizes first. Then I would look at the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor index, or SOX, to see if that bottoms, as it showed some strength last week. I am also checking out the banking index, or BKX, for a bottom today. Oh, and if you want to know when to get aggressive, wait for a break in gold -- not a $2 break, but a real break, 10, 20, 30 dollars' worth. We've been weak, but not so weak that there's been a give-up. It's been too painless. Today's a day for the bears, for Doug Kass, who nailed this one yesterday. Too early to buy until it's down a percent, then worth a look.