Editor's Desk
Bears Show a Pulse in Poll
David Morrow
02/12/07 - 02:20 PM EST
They say that sentiment is often a contrary indicator, but in TheStreet.com RealMoney Barometer it seems to reflect the prevailing trend.
Perhaps alarmed by Friday's stock market selloff driven by problems in subprime-mortgage lending, investors took a bearish outlook in our weekly poll. It was the first time the poll was bearish since Oct. 9.
Of the 1,389 votes cast, the bears recorded a convincing 618, or 44%. The bulls came in at 25% with 348 votes. Neutral continued its consistent showing with 423 votes, or 30%.
In the sectors, likely due to gold's recent rise, precious metals was seen as the sector most likely to rise. Homebuilding, faced with more signs of a persistent slowdown, was tapped as the sector most likely to fall this week.
Several companies were making M&A news. India's Hindalco will buy Novelis(NVL) in a roughly $6 billion deal, and Tenaris(TS) will acquire Hydril(HYDL) for $2.16 billion.
Two other potential hookups might be finished. Nasdaq Stock Market's (NDAQ) $5.3 billion bid for the London Stock Exchange has failed, and rumored talks between Sanofi-Aventis(SNY) and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) have come to an end, according to a published report.
Dow component Home Depot(HD) added 1.1% to $41.45 after the seller of home-improvement goods said it might consider a sale or spinoff of its supply unit. The division has roughly $12 billion in annual sales.
The stock market was trading lower on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 27 points, or 0.22%, to 12,554. The Nasdaq Composite was trading at 2448, down about 12 points, or 0.47%. The S&P 500 was at 1433.33, down about 5 points, or 0.33%.
Crude oil was down significantly on Monday. Light, sweet crude for March delivery was trading down $2.23 to $57.66 a barrel on the Nymex.
Below are the complete poll results.
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| Date | Bullish | Bearish | Neutral | Week Ending S&P % Change |
Bullish Sector |
Bearish Sector |
| Feb. 12 | 348 (25%) | 618 (44%) | 423 (30%) |  |
Precious Metals | Homebuilding |
| Feb. 5 | 781 (54%) | 272 (19%) | 389 (27%) | - 0.6% | Energy Equipment & Services | Homebuilding |
| Jan. 29 | 901 (43%) | 440 (21%) | 737 (35%) | + 1.8% | Integrated Oil | Homebuilding |
| Jan. 22 | 582 (40%) | 357 (24%) | 520 (36%) | - 0.6% | Energy Equipment & Services | Semis, Semi Equipment |
| Sector | Total Votes | Percentage |
| Aerospace and Defense | 69 | 5% |
| Airlines | 17 | 1% |
| Automobiles | 26 | 2% |
| Beverages and Food Products | 50 | 4% |
| Biotechnology | 57 | 4% |
| Commercial Banks | 33 | 2% |
| Computers and Peripherals | 27 | 2% |
| Consumer Nondurables | 31 | 2% |
| Energy Equipment & Services | 174 | 13% |
| HMOs and Hospitals | 26 | 2% |
| Homebuilding | 19 | 1% |
| Insurance | 50 | 4% |
| Integrated Oil | 216 | 16% |
| Internet, Software Services | 29 | 2% |
| Investment Bankers and Brokers | 52 | 4% |
| Media | 19 | 1% |
| Multiline Retail | 14 | 1% |
| Pharmaceuticals | 47 | 3% |
| Precious Metals | 226 | 16% |
| Semis, Semi Equipment | 29 | 2% |
| Telecom Equipment | 50 | 4% |
| Tobacco and Alcohol | 43 | 3% |
| Utilities | 62 | 4% |
| Wireless Communications | 18 | 1% |
| Source: RealMoney.com | ||
| Sector | Total Votes | Percentage |
| Aerospace and Defense | 11 | 1% |
| Airlines | 98 | 7% |
| Automobiles | 67 | 5% |
| Beverages and Food Products | 8 | 1% |
| Biotechnology | 23 | 2% |
| Commercial Banks | 131 | 9% |
| Computers and Peripherals | 61 | 4% |
| Consumer Nondurables | 8 | 1% |
| Energy Equipment & Services | 30 | 2% |
| HMOs and Hospitals | 13 | 1% |
| Homebuilding | 296 | 21% |
| Insurance | 16 | 1% |
| Integrated Oil | 68 | 5% |
| Internet, Software Services | 56 | 4% |
| Investment Bankers and Brokers | 78 | 6% |
| Media | 24 | 2% |
| Multiline Retail | 36 | 3% |
| Pharmaceuticals | 36 | 3% |
| Precious Metals | 56 | 4% |
| Semis, Semi Equipment | 168 | 12% |
| Telecom Equipment | 37 | 3% |
| Tobacco and Alcohol | 13 | 1% |
| Utilities | 17 | 1% |
| Wireless Communications | 27 | 2% |
| Source: RealMoney.com | ||