Active Trader Update

Return to Article

Drown Out Fed Noise

Jim Cramer

The difficulty for the Fed is that a case can be made for anything.

If you listen to the conference calls of UPS (UPS Quote) and 3M (MMM Quote), both truly representative of the U.S. economy, you need an easing and you need one tomorrow.

Last week, FedEx (FDX Quote) was no different, and the same was true with Tenneco (TEN Quote) and Visteon (VC Quote).

You want the Fed to come to the rescue of Countrywide (CFC Quote) and every homebuilder. GM (GM Quote) and Ford (F Quote) desperately need an easing. So do Caterpillar (CAT Quote) and Black & Decker (BDK Quote). Wood-product companies (Plum Creek (PCL Quote)) and chemical companies have been pretty disastrous.

These companies' woes barely make the radar screen.

Instead, we focus on robust consumer spending a la Nordstrom (JWN Quote) and Coach (COH Quote). We look at the good traffic of the rails -- mostly imports or raw goods.

We like what we see with Honeywell (HON Quote) and United Technologies (UTX Quote), even though those are more airplane-cycle stories, with much less to do with the economic cycle controlled by the Fed.

And, of course, we look at the profits of the mineral and steel companies, and we say, wow, bountiful, even though year over year, they aren't so hot and the latter is still in a glut.

To me, that's not enough to weigh in favor of a steady policy.

Of course, the macro folks focus on employment, which mocks the weakness and makes the whole idea of a cut seem preposterous.

All in all, though, if you look at the actual reporting companies, you simply cannot take an easing off the table, no matter what the futures say.

For stocks, what does it mean? The uncertainty over rates remains oddly good -- no recession or they would take action, no inflation or they would take action.

Just like now they are out of the picture, which means there's plenty of opportunity if you drown out the Fed noise.