Small Business and Technology Focus
Hold Your Excitement on Yahoo!
Kevin Kelleher
01/26/07 - 07:14 AM EST
Not so fast,
Yahoo! bulls.
There is a sense that the worst has passed. There is a sense that
the page has been turned on an ugly and depressing chapter in the
history of the Internet giant.
There may even be a sense of relief over at
Google , where the geeks in charge are idealistic enough to trade
in a certain monopoly on search in exchange for a sharp competitor who can prod them into developing even better technology.
It would be easy to believe that Yahoo! has turned a corner and that
it's all recovery and rallies from here on out. Even after Thursday's tumbling in tech stocks, Yahoo! shares were still about 4% higher than where they closed before Tuesday's
fourth-quarter earnings report.
But while Yahoo! has very likely turned a corner, it's too early to get that bullish.
First of all, Yahoo's earnings-inspired 7% surge on Wednesday put it at its highest level since Jan. 18. So if you bought shares last week, went on vacation and just got back in the office today, you could be down on your trade. That's not exactly a rally -- it's more of a short squeeze.
I'm not saying it's over for Yahoo!. I don't buy or sell stocks, but
I find myself rooting for or against companies, and I've been rooting
for Yahoo! Why? There are a lot of seeds of ideas that could bear fruit
for customers and investors alike if they would only take root.
But it's hard for a flower to grow in a pot that's falling from the penthouse window.
And that flower pot is Yahoo!. Not only has the corporate structure
been an unsightly shambles that spilled into public view when an
executive tried to stage a coup
with a rambling memo,
but Yahoo! has committed the cardinal sin of commerce: It left money
on the table.
It's well known that Yahoo's current search technology has cost it market
share, but it has also cost it potential revenue. Page views rose 22% in
the fourth quarter, but that was offset by a 3% decline in revenue per
page, CFO Susan Decker said. That left search revenue growth "in the
high single digits."
Why the drop? According to Decker, it was a "decline in revenue per
query in search, which is likely until Panama is fully operational."
In other words, Yahoo!'s delay in rolling out Panama, a technology
that can compete with Google's AdWords, is the financial equivalent of Google
stuffing millions of dollars into trash bags and tossing them out car
windows -- except that it caused fewer traffic jams.
That explains all the excitement surrounding the company's announcement that Panama would be operational ahead of schedule. But it's too
late now to get excited about Panama. That moment came nearly two years
ago, when it was clear to everyone, including Yahoo! CEO Terry Semel,
that Google had surpassed Yahoo! in search, but well before people began to declare Google the winner of the search battle.
It's even too late to breathe a sigh of relief that Panama will
finally roll out. That moment came a quarter ago, when Semel swore, with
the sweaty earnestness of a deadbeat confronting a bill collector, that
Panama would hit the streets in early 2007. All we've heard this quarter is
a confirmation that Yahoo! will deliver the goods as promised.
As encouraging as Yahoo! was about its turnaround, it was also
sober about how long it will take to show results. In an interview with
the
New York Times Wednesday, Semel said: "The first time we see
any benefit will be at the end of the second quarter. ... Every quarter
thereafter we will start to get better."
And as Decker noted, the decline in revenue per query will persist
until Panama is "fully operational." Given that even the best-planned
technologies suffer glitches and require fine-tuning for a quarter or
so, fully operational is something that will happen much later this
year. Until then, search revenue could underperform.
That's probably why Yahoo! gave less-than-dazzling guidance despite
assurances that the turnaround was on track. Yahoo! said revenue
ex-traffic acquisition costs will be between $1.12 billion and $1.23
billion this quarter and between $4.95 billion and $5.45 billion this
year. Analysts had been looking for $1.26 billion and $5.47 billion,
respectively.
As Larson Kusick observed on
RealMoney, several of the most-bullish analysts lowered their earnings estimates for Yahoo! this year following its fourth-quarter report.
There is hope, however, in Yahoo's other revenue generator: display and banner
advertising. There, revenue among Yahoo's top 200 U.S. advertisers
gained 30% while the dollar-per-display-ad figure also gained. That
could offset weak search growth in the near term, but Yahoo! also faces a
formidable competitor in
Time Warner's Advertising.com.
The good news at Yahoo is good indeed: A long-needed fix is in the
works. But the bad news for investors hoping to profit from the
turnaround is that they may need to wait several months -- and on the
Internet, a lot can change in several months.