Apply the Yo-Yo Rule to Tech Now
Jim Cramer
01/18/07 - 11:05 AM EST
This column was originally published on RealMoney
on Jan. 18 at 9:03 a.m. EST. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers. For more information about subscribing to RealMoney,
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Tough to say "Nope, that doesn't work." I remember when Matt Jacobs, my research director at my old hedge fund, would come to me with tech ideas right now, this week of the year, and I would just wave my hand for him to get out of my face. Like, Just get lost, man. Stop trying to hurt me.
He took it personally, of course. Who wouldn't? Who would like being told that all of that work on
Research In Motion(RIMM Quote) or
Network Appliance(NTAP Quote) or
Western Digital(WDC Quote) was for naught?
But I knew it, because my partner at the time, Jeff Berkowitz, had run the February Goldman Sachs technology conference when he worked for Goldman, my alma mater. The idea of the meeting, held in early February, being the moment that tech had already peaked was so ingrained that while he was at Goldman, he made up yo-yos with the buy and sell points for tech on them. I am not kidding.
Yo-yos!
It was Jeff who gave me the yo-yo when he started. If he had contributed only that in his 10 years with me, it would have been enough. I kept that yo-yo on my desk for years to remind me
no new tech positions now.
Sure, some will be built to last. I believe you can buy
Apple(AAPL Quote) because
that guidance was just plain insulting. You don't want to leave
Microsoft(MSFT Quote) or
Hewlett-Packard(HPQ Quote) because of Vista.
Google's(GOOG Quote) the most powerful earnings story out there.
Cisco(CSCO Quote)? Immunized by downgrades and some terrific product cycles.
But in the end, the yo-yo controls.
Tech's to be sold, not bought, right here. It can be traded. Not owned. Not until the dog days of August.
Random musings: I've found your new favorite tool:
TheStreet.com Ratings Screener. Use it to find exactly the stock you're looking for -- c'mon, I know you resolved that this is the year you get more involved in stocks. This is the easiest way yet to make sense of a universe of more than 6,000 names. It's all here, sorted by market cap, rating and more.