Get Even More Bullish on the Dow, Part 1

Jim Cramer

Editor's note: This is Part 1 of Jim Cramer's review of the prospects for the stocks that make up the Dow 30. Read Part 2, Part 3 and Part 4.

The sin of not being bullish enough is not one that I have been guilty of very often, but 2006 found me on that side of the fence when I did my annual predictions for the Dow Jones Industrial Average components. I was just about bullish enough on the average itself, though: The Dow closed the year at 12,463, just 7 points below my target of 12,470.

Seems comical now, but at the time, I was shocked at how bullish that forecast seemed. Now I'm only slightly -- and pleasantly -- more surprised at just how positive I am on the Big 30's prospects for the next year now that I've sat down and quantified it.

You see, I expect the Dow to grow about 17% in 2007, to 14,548. Read on to find out why.

3M Flat in '07

3M(MMM Quote): This one's not lent to easy analysis. The company dropped a bomb in the second quarter and then made a nice recovery in the third, but who knows what could happen with this odd agglomeration of companies. I don't trust management to deliver, but the company itself perks along nicely. I bet it will finish unchanged next year. There's just not enough to work with here and a CEO who is too unseasoned to take the company where it has to go.

Alcoa Won't be public

Alcoa(AA Quote): This one's easy. It won't be public by the end of 2007. This management team has had its chance. Alcoa has to be the only major mineral company that's done absolutely nothing during this amazing commodity boom. Someone else will get a chance to make something of Alcoa in 2007. I see the company going out north of $40.

Altria Breakup bound

Altria(MO Quote): Nobody seemed to notice, but the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, one of the most important federal courts in the land, pretty much destroyed the right of plaintiffs' lawyers to put these disparate class actions together, like the one that is haunting Altria in Brooklyn, N.Y., involving light cigarettes. When that case is overturned, Altria will move to break into three parts: Altria Domestic, Altria International and Kraft(KFT Quote). All three will benefit from not being with each other, particularly Kraft. I see these three parts getting you to $110 rather quickly.

American Express Headed to $72

American Express(AXP Quote): This company seems to put on a quiet 20% every year, at least, since Ken Chenault took it over. He's a quiet exec, doing his job, not seeking the limelight -- and what a remarkable job he's done. Next year will be still one more great year, because the credit-card cachet never abates and the company will find new ways to slice its brimming customer base. My price target on this one: $72.

AIG Now Mr. Clean

AIG(AIG Quote): I own American International Group for Action Alerts PLUS because people don't understand that the company is now Mr. Clean, certified by the new governor of New York before he left his state attorney general post for the governor's mansion. So what is this 12% grower with a terrific business in China doing still selling at 12 times earnings? Some of the cause is the perception that the regulation has hampered its business. Wrong! The other drawback: the perceived selling overhang of defrocked Maurice Hank Greenberg. I don't care about that, either. Three multiple points tacked on to the current price-to-earnings ratio plus an upside surprise owing to no major tsunami or hurricane payoffs should lift the stock to $95.

AT&T Knows how to do a deal

AT&T(T Quote): So AT&T finally gets to merge with BellSouth(BLS Quote) and the result is a firing binge that explodes earnings without denting customer service. Unlike Sprint(S Quote), AT&T knows how to do a deal. I see the combined company adding 6 points to T's price as the synergies flow through and the dividends increase.

Boeing Monopoly player?

Boeing(BA Quote): In 2007, I believe Airbus will admit the sad truth that it can't make the big planes it promised so many. That would allow Boeing to become something it has always wanted to be: a monopolist. And what a great time to be a monopolist! Labor costs are down, raw material costs have stabilized and prices can be raised. Some think this stock has peaked; they ain't seen nothing yet. I like the prospects for a 30% increase and a price of $120, made up in big increments at the reporting of each quarterly upside surprise.

Editor's note: This is Part 1 of Jim Cramer's review of the prospects for the stocks that make up the Dow 30. Read Part 2, Part 3 and Part 4.

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