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Weekend Reading

Paul Kedrosky

Good Sunday morning and welcome to Weekend Reading. As always, here are some articles and papers worth reading. First, however, a look back at the week that just finished, and a look forward to the week ahead.

It was an upbeat week on the major markets, with the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite all gaining approximately 1.0%.

Next week is, once again, all about the Federal Reserve. While no rate changes are expected from this Tuesday's meeting, that won't stop traders from watching to see if there are any changes in the signals coming out of the meeting. Is the Fed likely to reduce rates in the spring, as many are expecting? Has the latest jobs report made the threat of recession recede? Or are we, as Jim Rogers claims in the weekend Barron's, already in recession?

Turning to the economic week ahead, we have the FOMC meeting on Tuesday, as well as data on the U.S. international trade deficit for October. On Wednesday, we will see government data on November retail sales, followed Thursday by November CPI data. Also scheduled for this week is an OPEC meeting where supplies are expected to be cut back.

Turning to earnings, we are set for results from Best Buy(BBY Quote), Dollar General(DG Quote), Costco(COST Quote), Adobe(ADBE Quote), Goldman Sachs(GS Quote), Bear Stearns(BSC Quote) and Lehman Brothers(LEH Quote).

Finally, here are some articles and papers worth reading:

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• Real estate has slowed in the U.S., but is still hot elsewhere. (The Economist)
• OECD roundtable discussion on whether Russia's oil boom is set to bust. (OECD)
• Inside what really happened during Amaranth's slide. (Bloomberg)
• Bill Miller's streak of beating the S&P 500 will end this year. (The Economist)
• Genelogic leads in repurposing established drugs for new markets. (Fortune)
• It's the tenth anniversary of Greenspan's use of the phrase "irrational exuberance." (Bloomberg)
• Barron's tips Medtronic, Nortel, and Alcon. (Barron's)
• Microsoft is conflicted on Internet brands and contemplating killing the Live name. (The New York Times)
• Major wireless companies are entering an expensive wiring war. (The New York Times)
• Craigslist continues to befuddle analysts and investment bankers. (DealBook)
• Google is bringing auction markets for ads to radio. (The Washington Post)
• With the current bull market aging, it's hard to imagine it stretching on much longer. (The Economist)
• Goldman Sachs' new beta tracker continues to be controversial. (Investment Dealers' Digest)
• Research: The shrinking worldwide equity risk premium. (SSRN)
• Books: Forbes columnist Ken Fisher has a new book out (that I've only just started). (Amazon)
• Research: Cash flows lose to earnings multiples in valuing stocks. (SSRN)

1 What would best describe your stance heading into the coming week of trading? Bullish Bearish Neutral 2 Which of these sectors do you think is set to move up in the coming week? --Choose One--Aerospace and DefenseAirlinesAutomobilesBeverages and Food ProductsBiotechnologyCommercial BanksComputers and PeripheralsConsumer NondurablesEnergy Equipment & ServicesHMOs and HospitalsHomebuildingInsuranceIntegrated OilInternet, Software ServicesInvestment Bankers and BrokersMediaMultiline RetailPharmaceuticalsPrecious MetalsSemis, Semi EquipmentTelecom EquipmentTobacco and AlcoholWireless CommunicationsUtilities 3 Which of these sectors do you think is set to move down in the coming week? --Choose One--Aerospace and DefenseAirlinesAutomobilesBeverages and Food ProductsBiotechnologyCommercial BanksComputers and PeripheralsConsumer NondurablesEnergy Equipment & ServicesHMOs and HospitalsHomebuildingInsuranceIntegrated OilInternet, Software ServicesInvestment Bankers and BrokersMediaMultiline RetailPharmaceuticalsPrecious MetalsSemis, Semi EquipmentTelecom EquipmentTobacco and AlcoholWireless CommunicationsUtilities View the results without voting