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Coming Week: Shoppers' Delight

Gregg Greenberg

A deluge of reports, including new and existing-home sales, consumer confidence and third-quarter economic growth data, will steer this week's market as the all-important holiday shopping season kicks into high gear.

"A lot of the next week's data releases -- especially consumer confidence and personal income and spending -- have major implications for the entire holiday sales outlook," says Phillip Newhart, economist at Wachovia. "Black Friday data may drive trading on Monday morning, but it's more anecdotal and company-specific."

The official start of the holiday spending season on so-called Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, started with a bang as shoppers flooded stores across the country in search of bargains. But the event was greeted by selling on Wall Street.

Stocks headed lower in Friday's shortened trading session, sending blue chips lower for the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 47 points on Friday to close at 12,280, leaving it down 0.5% for the week. The S&P 500 dipped 5 points to 1401 Friday and finished down fractionally for the week. The Nasdaq fell 6 points to 2461 Friday, but rose 14 points, or 0.6%, during the four sessions.

Weakness in stocks on Friday was widely attributed to a drop in the value of the dollar, but it also reflected anxiety about a slowing economy and a broad slump in the U.S. housing market.

The health of the housing sector, which has been considered a headwind to the market's impressive gains, will once again be the focus when October existing-home sales figures are released on Tuesday. The Thomson First Call estimate is for homes to have sold at an annual rate of 6.2 million units, up from 6.18 million the prior month.

"The market needs to see what was happening on the demand side of the housing sector, because housing starts, which is the supply side, have been plummeting," says Newhart.

Tuesday will also feature the durable goods report for October. Economists expect a drop of 4.5%, compared with a rise of 8.3% in September.

Consumer confidence for November arrives on Tuesday as well, with the market expecting a reading of 106, up from last month's 105.4.

The U.S. economy will be in the spotlight on Wednesday when the revised third quarter GDP figures are released. The Thomson First Call consensus estimate is for growth of 1.8%, up from the preliminary figure of 1.6%.

And in more housing data, the Commerce Department will release new-home sales data for October. Sales of new homes are expected to moderate slightly to 1.065 units on an annualized basis from 1.075 million in September.

Thursday will be chock full of economic data as well. Set for release will be reports on personal income and spending for October, as well as the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, which is expected to rise to 55.5 from 53.5 in October.

Auto and truck sales for November will be released on Friday, as well as October's construction spending data.

Traders will also hone in on the ISM index for November. Economists are looking for the ISM to rise to 52.3 from 51.2 in the prior period.

Earnings Of Interest

The earnings calendar pales in comparison to what's on tap on the economic front. Nevertheless, there are a few notable names on the calendar.

On Tuesday, the market will hear from technology players VA Software (LNUX Quote) and Semtech(SMTC Quote).

Retailers are also back in style on Tuesday, with reports from Chico's FAS(CHS Quote) and Restoration Hardware (RSTO Quote).

Wednesday will be another big day on the retail front with Aeropostale(ARO Quote), Bon-Ton Stores(BONT Quote) and Tiffany (TIF Quote) reporting quarterly results.

Investors will also be able to tune into Tivo's(TIVO Quote) earnings report Wednesday. Analysts expect the company to lose 15 cents a share, narrower than last year's loss of 17 cents a share, on $54.7 million in revenue.

Thursday's highlights include reports from the likes of H&R Block(HRB Quote), Finisar(FNSR Quote) and Heinz(HNZ Quote).

On Friday, Warner Music Group(WMG Quote) executives will try to please the ears of Wall Street analysts. Expectations are for the company to break even, down from a profit of 8 cents a share last year, on $892.6 million in revenue.

1 What would best describe your stance heading into the coming week of trading? Bullish Bearish Neutral 2 Which of these sectors do you think is set to move up in the coming week? --Choose One--Aerospace and DefenseAirlinesAutomobilesBeverages and Food ProductsBiotechnologyCommercial BanksComputers and PeripheralsConsumer NondurablesEnergy Equipment & ServicesHMOs and HospitalsHomebuildingInsuranceIntegrated OilInternet, Software ServicesInvestment Bankers and BrokersMediaMultiline RetailPharmaceuticalsPrecious MetalsSemis, Semi EquipmentTelecom EquipmentTobacco and AlcoholWireless CommunicationsUtilities 3 Which of these sectors do you think is set to move down in the coming week? --Choose One--Aerospace and DefenseAirlinesAutomobilesBeverages and Food ProductsBiotechnologyCommercial BanksComputers and PeripheralsConsumer NondurablesEnergy Equipment & ServicesHMOs and HospitalsHomebuildingInsuranceIntegrated OilInternet, Software ServicesInvestment Bankers and BrokersMediaMultiline RetailPharmaceuticalsPrecious MetalsSemis, Semi EquipmentTelecom EquipmentTobacco and AlcoholWireless CommunicationsUtilities View the results without voting