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Wait 30 Days After Warnings

Jim Cramer

Few rules have saved me more than the 30-day preannouncement rule.

When Tibco Software(TIBX) preannounces a bad quarter, do you rush to buy it? Are you someone who put money to work in Waters(WAT) right after its vicious preannouncement in spring 2005?

If you are, this rule is for you:

Always wait 30 days after an earnings preannouncement before you buy.

I designed it because I recognize how compelling some of these price adjustments are, but they often are not deep enough to make the stocks ultimately attractive.

Here's why. When a company preannounces a bad quarter, it isn't just looking at the past. It is looking at its order book, its future. Believe me, if there were any hope that the company wouldn't have to preannounce -- hope in the form that maybe something could get better, not worse in the next 30 days -- the company would wait.

Preannouncements signal ongoing weakness. That's why I like to wait 30 days to see if anything has gotten better before I pull the trigger to buy.

Sure, I will miss some great opportunities. Most of the time, though, after 30 days, I find that there is more woe and another leg down! If there isn't, then I might miss a point or even 2, but I will be on terra firma. That's the only thing you want to be stepping on in any market, including this one.

	1.	Pigs Get Slaughtered		2.	It's OK to Pay the Taxes
	3.	Don't Buy All at Once		4.	Buy Damaged Stocks
	5.	Diversify to Control Risk		6.	Do Your Homework
	7.	Don't Panic		8.	Buy Best-of-Breed
	9.	Defend Some Stocks		10.	Don't Bet on Bad Stocks
	11.	Own Fewer Names		12.	Cash Is for Winners
	13.	No Regrets		14.	Expect Corrections
	15.	Know Bonds		16.	Don't Subsidize Losers
	17.	No Room for Hope		18.	Be Flexible
	19.	Quit When Execs Do		20.	Patience Is a Virtue
	21.	Be a TV Critic		22.	When to Wait 30 Days
	23.	Beware the Hype		24.	Explain Your Picks
	25.	Find the Bull Market