JBL: Tech Champions
John Layfield
04/08/06 - 10:10 AM EDT
It happened. I am officially the only person to write for
TheStreet.com while holding a championship in professional wrestling. Last Sunday at
WWE's Wrestlemania, I defeated Chris Benoit to become the new U.S. champion.
So now if you don't like my articles, I will hit you with a chair.
Speaking of irrational behavior, I just finished reading
Icon, the biography of Steve Jobs. Though slow at times, the book is a good read. Jobs is portrayed as a very smart man who has more than his share of quirks -- in fact, he is portrayed as a freaking nut.
Whether he's a nut or not, the man knows how to innovate and make money. Jobs has revolutionized consumer electronics.
Even after Wednesday's big move,
Apple (AAPL) is down more than 20% from its 52-week high of $86. I believe this is a buying opportunity.
Apple has a historic multiple between 40 to 50 times. It is now trading at a forward multiple of around 27, based on consensus fiscal 2007 estimates of $2.62. Apple is given this large multiple based on the fact that you can't put a valuation on innovation.
The iPod changed the way consumers listen to music; the video iPod will change the way consumers view content. Two sure things are bound to happen: Advertising has to change to survive, and Apple will revolutionize the way content is distributed. Advertising is a speculative bet; Apple is a sure thing.
Tech growth stories, which Apple is, have traditionally traded around three to four times enterprise value to sales. Given a conservative view, if Apple maintains double-digit growth, then it is easily a $90 stock.
Apple is a dream company. No debt, and over $10 per share in cash. Add to that the fact it is still a growth story and you have a stock that is cheap.
To watch JBL's video take of this column, click here.
I believe the growth days of Apple are still ahead. I believe iPods still have a lot of space to download music and that the video iPod that is coming out with a bigger screen will totally change the way consumers view content.
Other companies changing the way we communicate are cell-phone content providers. I just bought
VeriSign (VRSN) because of its recent acquisition of MQube.
VeriSign was in a bidding war for MQube. Investors, however, should have seen the obvious that VeriSign was going to win. VeriSign has more than $800 million in cash with no debt. It only makes sense that the best thing to do with that cash was to make an acquisition.
MQube is the market leader in premium messaging and content services that have a reach of 200 million wireless subscribers in North America. MQube was acquired for $250 million and brings with it $84 million in annual revenue.
VeriSign is forcast to increase earnings at 15% per year for the foreseeable future. However, I believe these estimates are low. We are starting to see a trend in which consumers are using their phones as their communication, media center and news life line. I believe the future will see phones replace the PC, to a degree.
VeriSign has gross margins above 68% and operating cash flow of over $500 million. With VeriSign's stock price down over 25% off its 52-week high, I believe this is a great buying opportunity.
VeriSign and Apple are investments in what the future holds for technology. While you can put estimates on earnings, but estimates on innovation are next to impossible. I believe both stocks are great technology core holdings.
Remember,
being poor is bad, staying that way is stupid.