James J. Cramer

Return to Article

As AIG Unravels, Seize Any Bounce

Jim Cramer

Now, what was that we liked about AIG(AIG Quote - Cramer on AIG - Stock Picks)? The more I read about the complex web of entities that is AIG, instead of the smart, single company that I thought was AIG, the more I realize that Hank Greenberg may have fooled a lot of people with his brilliance. The latest development: The SEC has subpoenaed as many as a dozen AIG execs for its investigation of the company's accounting.

Oh, no doubt, Greenberg is smart. He created numerous products and entities that gave impressions of strength that everyone seemed to buy in to. Yet I can't help feeling that what Greenberg really did was trade on his own legend. Every time I read a story about AIG, I discover another privately held company that was "key" to AIG's earnings. Invariably, the privately held company was owned by insiders, including Greenberg himself.

Perhaps it's because I am engrossed in Conspiracy of Fools in my spare time, but the more I read about AIG, the more I think about Enron. Yeah, I know, invoking Enron's like invoking thermonuclear war; you don't want to do it too often. But you have to think that, with all of these private companies being so integral to AIG, AIG could report whatever the heck it wanted ... and it seems that it did!

I wonder if AIG itself even knows what it has, what it owns, what cash it keeps, what the books are saying. It seems almost too complicated for any one man -- including Greenberg -- to manage.

I am sure there will be a trading bounce here somewhere. There was in Enron. There was in Fannie Mae(FNM Quote - Cramer on FNM - Stock Picks), another terrific analogue to AIG.

If you get it, take it.

Who can trust these guys anymore?