Google's Grating Silence
Kevin Kelleher
03/07/05 - 07:14 AM EST
There was a telling moment for
Google when CEO Eric Schmidt spoke at the
Bear Stearns Media Conference Wednesday. Analyst
Alexia Quadrani lobbed a softball to get the
discussion going: "Where do you see advertising
dollars coming from?"
Without missing a beat, Schmidt responded, "We
don't really know."
Really? Google is the information company, the
house of genius engineers who have boldly vowed to
bring order to the gray goo of information on the
Internet -- and who have done an astonishingly good
job of delivering on that promise so far. Yet Schmidt
was asking investors to accept the notion that Google
didn't even know how many of its ads were coming from
longtime Internet advertisers vs. offline advertisers.
Schmidt, who along with founders Larry Page and
Sergey Brin makes up Google's so-called triumvirate,
then launched into a soft-shoe routine about how
"people think of Google as an advertising company, but
we're really about return on sales." It was at once
meaningless -- which company isn't about return on
sales? -- and emblematic of Google's insistence on
greeting Wall Street with a shrug.
For now, Wall Street isn't objecting. After all,
who is going to complain about a company whose revenue
more than doubled and whose profit grew sevenfold in
its most recent quarter?
Google has explicitly encouraged investors to take
a long-term view. Yet its tendency to withhold
information relevant to shareholders is a long-term
concern. When a crisis hits Google -- as it has every
other tech giant, from
Microsoft to
Intel, from
Amazon.com to
eBay, from
AOL to
WorldCom --
investors who have endured Google's silence in good
times will find it hard to shake off the feeling
they're not getting the full story.
"It's not an issue right now because they're
blowing through their numbers. [But] Wall Street will
clamor for transparency when there's a negative," says
an institutional investor who asked not to be named
and whose fund bought Google shares in the IPO. "If I
had a company with similar financials that gave more
transparency, would I pay a premium for it? Yes, I
would."
There's nothing wrong with Google challenging what
many startups regard as the tyranny of investment
banks in the underwriting process. The shareholder
"Owner's Manual" that Google inserted at the start of
its prospectus was the stuff of legend -- an inspiring
blow for tech companies that, although profitable,
find the yoke of quarterly earnings and operating
margins hurt their ability to invest in innovation and
plan for long-term growth. It was the first
Securities and Exchange Commission filing
to include the words "Don't Be Evil" -- Google's
rallying cry. "We will not shy away from high-risk,
high-reward projects because of short-term earnings
pressure," the S-1 read, causing a thousand
entrepreneurs' hearts to skip a beat.
But in playing Blutarsky to Wall Street's Dean
Wormer, Google has gone too far. Many of the investors
the company looks down on are also loyal users of the
search engine. They are the same investors Google
stood up for when it insisted on a Dutch auction IPO.
Do they suddenly become evil once they log on to their
Ameritrade accounts? Should they be denied the degree
of fundamental information they are used to receiving from the
other companies in which they invest?
Google refuses to offer any guidance on its
earnings numbers, although it's easy to understand
why: Guiding investors to profit estimates is like the
board game Go -- the rules sound simple enough but
turn out to be devilishly complex. Google's response,
though, is to address the right problem with the wrong
solution. Withholding guidance makes a stock more
volatile ahead of an earnings report.
"It's not that people need to be spoon-fed
guidance, but getting those numbers allows for fuller
expectations of the company," says Mark Mahaney, an
analyst at American Technology Research, which does no
underwriting for companies. "If you don't have
visibility, it generally makes you a little more
cautious about the stock."
To see how loath Google is to share information,
consider a story that appeared recently in
GQ.
Written by longtime Silicon Valley journalist John
Heilemann, the piece began with an amusing anecdote
about Page sitting in a plate of creme fraiche before
offering new evidence that Google doesn't quite get what it
means to be a public company.
Heilemann took a tidbit that appeared in
The
New York Times a year ago -- that
Intuit Chairman and
Apple board member Bill
Campbell was hired as a Google consultant -- and put
it in perspective. Several people quoted, including
Google backer Michael Moritz, considered Campbell
Google's hero and savior -- a mentor to the
triumvirate through a period of rapid growth. CEO Schmidt told the magazine, "Our basic strategy is to
invite him to everything."
A Google spokesman confirmed that Campbell is a
consultant, but declined further comment for the
record.
Securities laws require companies to disclose any
person who performs policymaking functions, whether a
formal officer or not. Campbell was only an adviser on
managing Google's growth, albeit a powerful one. So he
was likely not making any policy decisions at the
company. Securities attorneys interviewed said such an
arrangement would probably be legal, although very
unusual.
Google investors, of course, welcomed the news
about Campbell's role -- he is one of the most admired
tech executives around. Which raises a question for
Google's triumvirate: What's so bad about full
disclosure? Not as in proprietary technology or future
business strategies, but as in responding to such
basic investor-type questions about who's mentoring
its leaders, what its financial expectations are, how
individual initiatives are faring, and where it's
investing the money it raised in its IPO.
Sadly, those weren't the kinds of things Google
wanted to talk about at its first-ever analysts' day
last month, when the company once again took glee in
blowing dirt up Wall Street's nose. The CFO, George
Reyes, did appear, but only as a sort of emcee for the
day. Google's CFO would make no presentation, but in a
clever sleight of hand, Google's chef did. Get it?
That one was so funny I almost fell over into my
creme fraiche. Still, a company is opening the door to
some dangerous puns when it delivers a cook instead of
an accountant.
In other ways, Google delivered an unconventional
presentation for analysts: Lots of stuff on the
history of tech companies and the Internet as
extension of the brain, not too much on all that hard
math. To be fair, Reyes discussed some financials on
an earnings call a week earlier, but companies
customarily use analysts' days to give more numbers, not
fewer. Instead, investors heard vague comments from
Schmidt like, "We are moving to a Google that knows
more about you." Great, what about the other way
around?
Google's silence encourages the kind of
faith-based investing that proved deadly in the last
few years, an arguably reckless approach then and now.
But unlike those greedy dot-coms, Google's logic
implies that it's Wall Street that is evil -- all silk
suits and slumped shoulders, tittering as they rob
widows and step on kittens for fun. But let's say its
investors awoke to their shame and gave their shares
back to Google. Would the world be any better off?
Probably not. Beneath Google's attitude toward
Wall Street lies petulance that Google had to go
public -- not just to pay off venture investors but
because private companies need to disclose financials
once they have more than 500 investors (which Google
did in 2004, thanks to employee options). If Page and
Brin were really serious about not playing the
guidance game, they could have stayed private. But
that would have meant all the transparency of a public
company without any of the financial perks.
In other words, Page, Brin and Schmidt have no
problem holding a collective $17 billion stake thanks
to Google's public status, but they will do everything
they can to keep other shareholders from seeing how
the sausage is made. And yet on Wall Street, as
elsewhere, increased transparency has proven a virtue
time and again.
It's Google's fabulous joke on the rest of us: The
company making the world's information "universally
accessible" won't allow you to have much information
about itself. So let's name Google's holy trinity for
what it is: a bunch of hypocrites. Genius hypocrites.
Unconventional hypocrites. Revolutionary hypocrites.
But hypocrites all the same.
For Google, if for nobody else, hypocrisy isn't
necessarily evil.