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Ronna Abramson

Questions Linger Despite Microsoft's Strong Results

Ronna Abramson

01/23/04 - 10:51 AM EST

Updated from 9:47 a.m. EST

Analysts remained upbeat about Microsoft Friday, saying stronger-than-expected 19% revenue growth in the fiscal second quarter should outweigh a disappointing decline in deferred revenue, as reported by the software behemoth after the close Thursday.

Similarly, after digesting the numbers a little more -- particularly the larger-than-expected $395 million drop in deferred revenue -- investors seemed to be more encouraged by the results. After declining in after-hours trading Thursday, Microsoft shares rebounded Friday, climbing recently 73 cents, or 2.5%, at $28.74.

"Taken collectively, the true picture of what is happening with Microsoft's unearned revenue is perhaps less troublesome than most think," Deutsche Bank analyst Brian Skiba wrote in a note Friday. A near- to mid-term drag on the stock should be a buying opportunity for long-term investors, said Skiba, who has a buy rating on Microsoft. (His firm has not done banking with Microsoft.)

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster agreed investors should ignore any Street frustration with the decline in deferred revenue. By his calculations, Microsoft's sales bookings increased 18.4% year over year, only modestly shy of 19.5% growth needed to hit the general consensus estimate for deferred revenue.

Multi-year subscription sales to large enterprises remain robust, added Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Charlie Di Bona. Rather, it's in the small business market where they are weaker, resulting in the decline in deferred revenue. However, he believes that market is instead buying standard licenses. That would explain upside to the topline on the income statement. Di Bona has a buy rating on Microsoft and his firm's parent company, Alliance Capital, holds Microsoft shares.

"It's not because the [subscription] model stinks," Di Bona said. Rather, for various reasons, small businesses likely prefer to buy software as they needed it rather than as a multi-year subscription.

Di Bona's comments echoed the explanation offered by Microsoft management Thursday in a post-close conference call Thursday. "We are very pleased with our first $10 billion quarter," CFO John Connors said on the call. "We feel good about where we ended the quarter on unearned" revenue.

Redmond, Wash.-based Microsoft reported net income under generally accepted accounting principles of $1.55 billion, or 14 cents a share, in the second quarter, which includes a stock-based compensation charge of 20 cents a share. Of that charge, 14 cents a share was related to the company's unique stock option-transfer program with J.P. Morgan.

A year ago, Microsoft posted second-quarter net income of $1.87 billion, or 17 cents a share, which includes stock-based compensation charges totaling 7 cents a share, as well as other charges and a one-time tax benefit.

Excluding charges, including stock-based compensation and a one-time tax benefit, Microsoft recorded pro forma net income of 34 cents a share in the second quarter, compared with 26 cents a share on a split-adjusted basis a year earlier. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call were expecting the company to post pro forma earnings of 30 cents a share, the higher end of the company's target range of 29 cents to 30 cents a share for the second quarter ending in December.

Second-quarter revenue rose 19% to $10.15 billion from $8.54 billion a year earlier, and 23% from $8.22 billion in the previous quarter. That soared past the consensus estimate of $9.74 billion for the second quarter, roughly the midpoint of the company's targeted range of $9.7 billion to $9.8 billion.

"Consumer and corporate demand for PCs continued to exceed our expectations and resulted in solid double-digit revenue growth for Windows XP and Office products," Connors said in a press release. "In the second quarter, the overall corporate IT market also began to show signs of a recovery, with increased demand for both desktop and server products."

Investors received a hint that Microsoft might benefit from strong PC sales earlier this month when Gartner and IDC said fourth-quarter PC sales grew 12% to 15%. Microsoft registered 12% PC unit growth and 13% server unit growth and raised its forecast for PC growth in fiscal year 2004 to the low double digits.

Microsoft Second-Quarter Revenue by Segment (in millions)
2004 2003 % change
Client (Operating System) $3,059 $2,534 20.7
Server and Tools 2,134 1,763 21.0
Information Worker (Office) 2,895 2,285 26.7
Microsoft Business Solutions 190 135 40.7
MSN 546 459 19.0
Mobile and Embedded Devices 63 38 65.8
Home and Entertainment (Xbox) 1,266 1,327 -4.6
Total Revenue 10,153 8,541 18.9
Source: Microsoft

Looking ahead, Microsoft expects third-quarter revenue to range from $8.6 billion to $8.7 billion and third-quarter earnings to range from 28 cents to 29 cents a share, excluding an equity compensation charge of 5 cents a share. Analysts' estimates called for revenue of $8.54 billion in the December quarter and pro forma earnings of 27 cents a share.

Microsoft raised guidance for the full fiscal year 2004, which ends in June. Revenue is expected to range from $35.6 billion to $35.9 billion, up from previous guidance of $34.8 billion to $35.3 billion and higher than the consensus estimate of $35.3 billion. Microsoft said earnings should range from $1.17 to $1.18 a share, excluding a 35-cents-a-share equity compensation charge. That's up from previous guidance of $1.10 to $1.12 a share and the consensus estimate of $1.14 a share.

The increase in guidance is primarily due to improving market conditions, said Connors, who celebrates his 15-year anniversary with Microsoft Friday. But with record revenue quarters like the latest one, Connors suggested posting the same growth rates in fiscal year 2005 will be difficult. He cautioned investors not to assume growth will be linear and said Microsoft will likely focus more on costs in 2005, which could enable the company to show "decent absolute profit growth."

Such comments are hardly likely to prompt investors to flock to the world's largest software maker, whose stock dramatically lagged the tech rally last year. "It's inexpensive, which makes it attractive to a certain family of investors," said Michael Sansoterra, a software analyst at Principle Global Investors. "But at the same time, its growth is not as robust as many other software companies."

"I think it will attract a class of investors, but not the guys chasing the hot money," Sansoterra added. Principle holds shares of Microsoft.

On Microsoft's balance sheet, meanwhile, deferred revenue fell to $7.85 billion from $8.25 billion at the end of October. Deferred revenue represents revenue from customers paying a subscription to use Microsoft software. Microsoft first records such sales as unearned revenue on the balance sheet when a contract is signed and then recognizes it in equal installments on the income statement over the life of the contract.

Last quarter, Microsoft attributed the decline to one-time events such as a rash of virus outbreaks and a sales force reorganization, among other things. But those reasons don't wash a second time around.

"At this point, Microsoft can't chalk it up to one-time issues," Said Tony Ursillo, an analyst with Loomis, Sayles & Co., who was projecting the deferred revenue line would have come in about $200 million higher than Microsoft reported. "It's an issue with the company getting people to renew their various licensing plans." (His firm holds Microsoft shares.)

Analysts have expressed concern that a dearth of new products in coming years and competition from Linux are discouraging business customers from renewing their subscriptions.

On the conference call, Connors suggested that fewer-than-expected small and mid-sized businesses are buying subscriptions, which entitles them upgrades at no extra cost over the life of the contract. Instead, they're buying with one-time traditional software license purchases, in which Microsoft recognizes the revenue upfront on its income statement.

Principle's Sansoterra said Connors' explanation for the deferred revenue decline makes sense, though he suspects some companies are simply staying clear of buying any software, whether its as a subscription or traditional license. "It wouldn't surprise me if it's just fewer customers signing up for maintenance [subscriptions] in general," he said. "It's expensive."

Microsoft expects unearned revenue to take another dip in the March quarter but then return to its current level by the end of the June quarter.

On the other hand, Microsoft reported impressive growth in its Client, Information Worker and Server and Tools segments, which all posted growth in excess of 20%.

Driven in part by a new release of its Office applications in the fall, Microsoft's Information Worker segment posted 27% growth year-over-year. Microsoft's Client segment, largely made up of Windows operating system sales, grew 20.7% year over year. And the company's server and tools business grew 21%, higher than some estimates.

Microsoft's MSN division grew 19% over last year. The company's Business Solutions division targeting small- and medium-sized businesses posted sales growth of nearly 41%.

Sales of Xbox, which generates the highest revenue in the December quarter, declined year over year, largely because of tough comparisons to strong PC game sales last year, according to Chief Xbox Officer Robbie Bach. Microsoft has sold more than 13.7 million consoles and said it is on track to meeting its goal of selling between 14.5 million and 16 million Xboxes by the end of its fiscal year in June.

The company's gigantic cash horde reached $52.8 billion, with $4.6 billion in net cash generated from operations during the second quarter.


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