Final Four: Madness Ends in the Big Easy
Barry Lieberman
04/03/03 - 05:29 PM EST
We're now down to the cr¿me de la cr¿me of college basketball teams.
We've moved from the Field of 65, to the Sweet 16 to the Elite Eight and
now to the Final Four.
Although the two best teams in the country according to my power
ratings (Kentucky and Arizona) didn't make it to this weekend's games,
Kansas, Texas, Marquette and Syracuse are all quality teams that can win
the whole tournament. My power ratings for these teams are: Kansas a 3,
Texas a 5, Marquette a 7 and Syracuse an 8.
Three of the four teams had a large regional advantage in last
weekend's games. Only Kansas played in an arena not populated by a majority
of the team's fans. In New Orleans, Texas will clearly have the crowd
behind them, since most of their fans can simply drive to New Orleans in
less than a day.
Here's a summary of the point-spread results for the semifinal and
final round of the NCAA basketball tournament for the last six years.
Favorites in Final Four
Against the Spread |
| Year |
Semifinals |
Finals |
| 2002 |
0-2 |
1-0 |
| 2001 |
2-0 |
1-0 |
| 2000 |
2-0 |
1-0 |
| 1999 |
1-1 |
0-1 |
| 1998 |
0-2 |
1-0 |
| 1997 |
1-1 |
0-1 |
| 1996 |
0-2 |
0-1 |
| Totals |
6-8 |
4-3 |
Again, there's no clear pattern other than that the favorite has won
and covered the point spread in the championship game in the last three
years. Here are my selections for the semifinals and the championship game.
The Winners Are ...
Marquette +$1.80 (money line) over Kansas. Kansas is a 4 1/2-point favorite over Marquette. However, if you think Marquette can win the
game straight up, you can make a bet to win $1.80 for every dollar that you
bet on what is called the money line. I've gone back and forth on this
game for most of the week and have finally come to the conclusion that I
don't think the points will matter in this game. So I'm taking Marquette to
win the game straight up.
Kansas deserves kudos for their consecutive victories over Duke and
Arizona last weekend. But I think this week will be different for the
Jayhawks, for a number of reasons. Marquette has been a solid team all
season. Dwayne Wade has emerged as a certain NBA first-round draft pick. He
reminds me very much of Phoenix's Shawn Marion and has the versatility to
score in a variety of ways. Kansas has two solid NBA draft choices in Nick
Collison and Kirk Hinrich, but beyond those two players, their scoring
options are very limited. If either Collison or Hinrich gets into foul
trouble, the Jayhawks will be in trouble.
The Golden Eagles have more offensive weapons than
Kansas. Travis Diener is a point guard who can also score if necessary,
while Scott Merritt and Robert Jackson both average more than 10 points a
game and can take turns banging bodies with Collison. Steven Novak, a 6'10"
freshman, will also be a difficult matchup for the Jayhawks, since he has
made a remarkable 55-out-of-104 (52%) three-point shots this season. Both
Roy Williams and his team are also bound to be distracted by the continuing
speculation this week as to whether Williams will take the now-vacant North
Carolina coaching job.
Marquette must not run with Kansas and must get back on defense to
eliminate transition baskets. In a half-court game, the Golden Eagles are
superior to the Jayhawks, in my opinion. Whether they'll be able to keep
the game at a moderate pace is the $64,000 question. I'm betting that
former Michigan State assistant Tom Crean can get his team to slow down the
tempo and spring the upset.
Texas -3 (points) over Syracuse. Both of these teams enjoyed tremendous regional home crowd advantages last week. This week only one of the teams will have the majority of the crowd with them. With a week to prepare for
the Syracuse 2-3 zone and a coach who used to coach in the Big East and saw
the zone on a regular basis, I think Texas will be able to cover the spread
against the Orangemen.
Naismith award winner T.J. Ford is one of the best point guards in the
country, and he'll penetrate the 2-3 zone. Once that penetration is
accomplished, a kick out to the three-point shooters Sydmill Harris (38%),
Byron Mouton (40%) or Brian Boddicker (43%) should produce uncontested
shots. If Syracuse maintains outside coverage to stop the three-point
shooters, Ford should be able to dish to center James Thomas, who's making
more than 50% of his shots this season, for a high percentage layup.
There's no question that this Syracuse team's zone is a class above
most other team's 2-3 zone because of the exceptional quickness of the
Orangemen and the presence of an "eraser" in the middle of that zone in
Jeremy McNeil, who has blocked 98 shots this season. Syracuse held its
opponents to less than 40% shooting during the regular season and has held
its first four opponents in the NCAA tournament to 36% shooting.
Nevertheless, I think Texas will be able to score against the Orangemen
defense.
On offense, Syracuse can put up points, with NBA lottery pick Carmello
Anthony leading the way on the inside and Gerry McNamara leading the way on
the outside. Yet the Orangemen are a very young team, with only one senior
(Kueth Duany) on the roster. With the crowd being pro-Texas and the
pressure of the Final Four, I think the young Syracuse team may falter in
this contest, and I'll lay the three points with the Longhorns.
In the championship game on Monday night, I project that Texas will be
a three-point favorite if they play Marquette and a one-point underdog if
they play Kansas. If the line on the game is off by two or more points from
my projected line, I'll be betting on the team offering the greater value.
