Eric Gillin

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The Inside Line on the Hottest Holiday Toys

Eric Gillin

Good luck finding this season's hottest toys.

Not only is this the shortest holiday shopping season in six years, with just 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, but the dockworker strike in early fall has ensured that toys made in Asia will be harder to find than usual. And with retailers like Abercrombie & Fitch(ANF) concerned that consumers will spend less, inventory levels are being tightly controlled to prevent the wave of discounting that happened after last Christmas.

Consider what happened at the launch of the Silly Sounds Teletubbies dolls in the flagship Times Square Toys R Us. Even though the toy wasn't even advertised on TV, demand was so great that Toys R Us(TOY) couldn't keep them on the shelves. Parents and children mobbed the store display for weeks, eagerly grabbing the first Teletubbies toy released stateside in more than a year.

"Over the last three weeks, we've averaged 5,000 units a week," said Andrew Kerr, vice president of marketing for Ragdoll, which created the Teletubbies. "We expect to move 200,000 by the end of the year, but we have some concerns we won't be able to get all of the product on shelves that we'd like."

This puts parents under the gun. The key this year is figuring out the hot gifts and scooping them up early. You may not know the difference between Yu-Gi-Oh and Pokemon, but your kids do. But fear not: With our special inside look at this year's hottest toys, you'll get a jump on the competition, while ensuring that you grab the right toy.

The Toy that Toddlers Can't Put Down: Chicken Dance Elmo

Elmo, the fuzzy red Sesame Street character, has replaced Big Bird and Cookie Monster as the head Muppet in charge. Indeed, when the very first Elmo dolls were released more than five years ago, retailers couldn't keep them on the shelves. Dolls sold for hundreds on eBay. And this holiday season, Fisher Price will capitalize by releasing a new battery-powered plush Elmo that sings and dances like a chicken -- something that will keep 2-year-olds enthralled for hours. (Who can put a price tag on that?)

"When you press Chicken Dance Elmo's foot, Elmo moves his head. This is almost certainly going to be a winner, because it's just a continuation of that whole Elmo phenomenon that's been so big for kids three and under," said Seth Siegel, chairman and co-founder of the Beanstalk Group, a licensing agency.

Other Good Picks: Silly Sounds Teletubbies, Cabbage Patch Kids, Care Bears, Disney Toddler Princesses Playmates.

Close, but No Cigar: Tickle Me Elmo. This is the original Elmo that started the whole craze, but after six years, it's also the easiest to find. Retailers will certainly push Elmo, but make sure you grab the doll in the yellow chicken suit -- Siegel calls the older version "old news."

The In Thing for Cool Girls: Bratz Funky Fashion Makeover

Bratz make Barbie look like an old maid, winning the 2001 People's Choice Toy of the Year award. Over the last two years, these fashion-forward dolls have become the hard-to-find it-toy, featuring styles and trends cribbed from the latest pop stars. There are seven dolls in the series -- five girls and two boys -- but because MGA Entertainment releases them in limited-edition bunches, collecting them all will be difficult.

This holiday season, the hottest Bratz will be the Funky Fashion Makeover dolls, which are 12 inches tall and come with a wide assortment of cosmetics, glitter and hair stuff that kids can use on either the dolls or themselves. With a list price of $30, the dolls may be a bit on the pricey side, but they're at the top of the wish list, finishing second in the Yahooligans! Top 10 toys poll.

Other Good Picks: Bratz Funk 'N' Glow dolls, Fur Real Friends, Dora the Explorer, Password Journal, Singing Starz Video Karaoke.

Close, But No Cigar: Beanie Babies. Hard to believe, but just three years ago, adults were fighting their own kids for possession of these cute buckshot-stuffed animals. Today, Beanie Babies aren't even good for stocking stuffers, having gone the way of Dinky the Dodo.

The Hot Toy for Boys: Star Wars Electronic Lightsaber

Attack of the Clones, the second episode in the latest Star Wars trilogy, may have disappointed adult fans, but children are still enraptured with George Lucas' creations. This holiday season, both retailers and children are extremely excited about these electronic lightsabers, which make noise and have retractable blades. There are two versions, one featuring Obi Wan Kenobi and one with Anakin Skywalker.

Other movie-related tie-ins for Spider-Man, X-Men and Harry Potter are incredibly popular, but Star Wars was the best-selling license in 2002, according to industry tracker NPD Funworld. Lightsabers are the franchise's second-biggest seller, outside of action figures, and this year, total lightsaber sales will be more than double the number sold in 1999, when Episode One: The Phantom Menace was released.

Other Good Picks: Spider-Man Dual Action Web Blaster, Spider-Man action figures, Singing Starz Video Karaoke, Star Wars R2D2 Droid, He-Man action figures

Close, But No Cigar: Star Wars Lightsaber. The regular lightsaber looks nearly identical to its electronic counterpart but is a rather featureless toy that doesn't make any noises. Pay attention to the package. The electronic lightsaber has a "Try Me" feature.

The Violent Video Game They Want: Grand Theft Auto: Vice City

Last year, Grand Theft Auto 3 was such a blockbuster that it shattered sales records and was impossible to find as Christmas approached. Take Two Interactive (TTWO) hopes to repeat that success with the sequel, Grand Theft Auto: Vice City. In the next installment, gamers play a cocaine dealer in Miami during the 1980s, hell-bent on ruling the criminal underworld by carjacking, stealing and murdering the way to the top.

Vice City has more in common with its predecessor than just a controversial plotline -- it's already tough to find. The game sold out everywhere after just one day on the market, forcing Take Two to scramble to get more units in scores. And with a price tag of $50, it's a reasonably priced game that you will have to work to find.

Other Good Picks: Madden NFL 2003, Tony Hawk Pro Skater 4, Metroid Prime, Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets.

Close, But No Cigar: Grand Theft Auto 3. With Vice City sure to be a tough find, many video game retailers will probably push GTA3 as a good second choice. But chances are a gamer either already owns or has played last year's edition into the ground. Try one of the other good picks instead.

The Barbie Doll to Buy: Barbie as Rapunzel

Every year there's one Barbie doll that everyone wants but no one seems to be able to find. This year's frontrunner features the classic 11-and-a-half-inch holiday staple dressed as Rapunzel, complete with long, flowing hair and period dress. According to an exclusive poll of two dozen retailers by PlayDate, the doll is expected to be this holiday season's best seller, hands down.

"It's amazing it took Mattel this long to come out with this doll," said Siegel. "Barbie is all about dressing and undressing and playing with her hair. This is the character with the longest hair ever. There's a lot of buzz around the doll." But because of the dockworker strike, the doll will be scarce at first.

Other Good Picks: Pop Sensation Barbie, Mystery Squad Barbie, Dream Glow Barbie.

Close, But No Cigar: Anything Rapunzel that isn't a Barbie. Because Rapunzel is in the public domain, companies don't need to pay a royalty to make a knockoff with long hair. "Off-price shoppers are always offered products that are 'inspired by hot trends,'" warns Siegel. "There will be Rapunzel dolls, but they're just not Barbie. And that matters."

The Hot Harry Potter Toy: Hogwarts Express Lego Set

Harry Potter continues to cast a spell over children, and related products are sure to vanish from shelves before you can say Hogwarts. Because of author J.K. Rowling's insistence on limiting licenses to a few companies, Potter toys are extremely well-made -- and slightly scarce, especially with the latest movie hitting theaters this weekend.

"With the movie coming out, searches for anything Harry Potter-related have been extremely popular, even more than during the year," said Jason Hovey, senior producer for Yahooligans!, which tracked the gifts kids most want this holiday season.

Despite its $50 price tag, the 400-plus piece Hogwarts Express Lego Set has been generating buzz with Lego fans and Potter fans alike, because it includes all kinds of accessories, like capes, wands and broomsticks, that haven't been Lego-ed before.

Other Good Picks: Harry Potter Basilisk Playset, Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets action figures, Harry Potter Snape's Potion's Class Edible Activity Set

Close, But No Cigar: Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone. Toy stores are still peddling last year's movie and related tie-ins, but after 12 months, kids are far more eager for the new batch of goodies. Keep a close eye on which Harry you're buying.

The Killer Collectible: Yu-Gi-Oh Trading Cards

Ever since Pokemon made its stateside splash six years ago, companies have been attempting to capitalize on the popularity of trading-card-based games. As with Pokemon, Yu-Gi-Oh players strategically use the cards they collect to defeat an opponent in a duel. But because Yu-Gi-Oh has a dragons-and-knights look that older kids prefer, the series has surpassed the more cartoony Pokemon in popularity.

The series ranked fourth in a poll of the most popular toys picked by children through the Yahooligans! Web site. Cost-conscious shoppers are sure to flock to Yu-Gi-Oh trading cards as a source of inexpensive gifts. Retailers have had trouble stocking the $12 starter decks, which tend to have the hard-to-find cards that kids crave.

Other Good Picks: If the starter decks are gone, you may want to consider snapping up individual booster packs, which cost $3 each but only have nine cards. If those are gone, there are special gift sets that cost $20 and include an exclusive card and five booster packs.

Close, but No Cigar: Pokemon. The no-brainer gift from a few years back has finally run out of gas. Chances are the Pokemon player you knew has outgrown Jigglypuff and company. Also, avoid purchasing other Yu-Gi-Oh gear, like DVDs and toys. Though these are popular, experts say kids are craziest for the cards.